Readers of TWR know that I am not particularly sanguine about getting major Russian help on Iran. Does yesterday’s Obama-Medvedev meeting prove me wrong? Medvedev acknowledged that sometimes sanctions are needed and that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We also have the draft resolution for the UN Security Council on countries that seek to use civilian nuclear programs as the basis for weapons development.

But the crux of the matter for the U.S. is not when Tehran crosses the line and has a working bomb, it is trusting Iran to have a nuclear infrastructure like Japan’s. I think that Russia will be far more supportive of “trusting” Iran with nuclear technology than a U.S. which would prefer a much higher degree of Iranian denuclearization. And I think it is here that we will still have daylight between the positions, unless something else changes the calculus.

Posted by Nikolas Gvosdev at 09/24/2009 08:38:09 AM |