NORTHEAST ASIA now faces a series of critical security challenges. China's remarkable 25-year economic-reform effort has profoundly increased Beijing's economic, political and military influence in the region. Some fear that in response Japan will more aggressively assert its regional interests. At the same time, South Korea is now formulating a foreign policy that moves the country beyond its traditional role as a compliant U.S. ally, a change that could bring Seoul into diplomatic conflict with both Washington and Tokyo.
Finally, North Korea remains a dangerous, isolated and unpredictable country, as the six-party talks continue to fluctuate between hope and confusion. And looming over the region is the flashpoint of energy: The increasing demand in all of the countries of northeast Asia, particularly China, for secure supplies of energy heightens political tensions, sharpens unresolved territorial disputes, and creates fertile ground for misunderstanding and conflict.
In some ways, northeast Asia today evokes Europe at the turn of the 20th century, where rising regional powers, territorial conflicts and troubled bilateral relations led to fifty years of catastrophic violence. Some have argued that rising economic interdependence and substantial levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly between China and Japan, make the current situation in northeast Asia less volatile. After all, between 1980 and 2003, FDI in Asian countries grew from around $4 billion to more than $100 billion. However, the absence of a multilateral security architecture capable of mediating conflicts and reducing tensions remains a pressing problem. And America's bilateral relations in the region have grown more complicated in recent years, leading some to question whether the United States by itself can serve as an effective arbiter.
