SINCE A team of Goldman Sachs economists popularized the term "BRICs" (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in October 2003, this group of emerging-market countries has assumed ever-greater importance in the international investment community's collective imagination. The Goldman Sachs analysts argued that, with sound political leadership and a bit of luck, these four economies could outpace the original G-6 industrialized nations in dollar terms by 2040-a profound shift in the world's economic balance of power.
Yet, the political factors that help drive economic policy in these countries differ in crucial ways, undermining any notion that they carry collective weight as a coherent economic bloc. Their growth stories (thus far) are impressive. But the sorts of future risks they will face reveal that they have much less in common than meets the eye.
Her Name is Rio
FOUR YEARS ago, when Luis Inácio Lula da Silva became Brazil's first elected "leftist" president, many feared he would renege on pledges to pursue disciplined economic policy at the first sign that profligate social spending would boost his popularity. Some worried that he would follow the lead of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and throw Brazil's economic liberalization into reverse. None of that has happened. Lula is known as a "leftist" mainly because he made his reputation as a tough-minded labor negotiator. But he also understands the value of compromise and of keeping his promises. Lula is a pragmatist and deal-maker, not a Chávez-style ideologue.
