Certain kinds of developments, though rife with consequence for
economics, politics, and strategy, are intrinsically difficult to
anticipate. Wars, revolutions, and economic panics are typical cases
in point. Yet there are also important sorts of developments that are
less subject to historical caprice or political calculation, more
likely to unfold in a regular manner over a relatively long time, and
thus inherently easier to envision in advance. Population change is
one of these.
Barring the contingency of utter catastrophe, we can already
estimate, often in surprising detail, what lies in store for East
Asia in demographic terms over the next fifteen to twenty years. Such
projections point to a number of new and unfamiliar conditions for
the region-each of which could have sweeping ramifications. One
involves the ratio of young to elderly in a population, a factor that
necessarily influences pension burdens, savings rates, and hence
general economic conditions. Another concerns manpower availability,
which also affects economic potential and thus, ultimately, national
power. A third-imbalanced sex ratios-can portend social tension and,
possibly, political trouble. While the social and economic
implications of demographic facts are harder to discern than the
facts themselves, some conclusions may be reached with a reasonably
high level of confidence. Taken together, these implications in turn
form a significant element of the context in which political and
strategic dynamics will play out.
Knowing the Numbers
