Asia Tomorrow, Gray and Male

Barring the contingency of utter catastrophe, we can already estimate, often in surprising detail, what lies in store for East Asia in demographic terms over the next fifteen to twenty years.

Issue: Fall 1998

Certain kinds of developments, though rife with consequence for
economics, politics, and strategy, are intrinsically difficult to
anticipate. Wars, revolutions, and economic panics are typical cases
in point. Yet there are also important sorts of developments that are
less subject to historical caprice or political calculation, more
likely to unfold in a regular manner over a relatively long time, and
thus inherently easier to envision in advance. Population change is
one of these.

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