WHILE WE agree with many of the points raised by David Victor in his article, "What Resource Wars?", we are concerned that he underestimates the risks climate change poses to global stability and to our national security-risks addressed in our CNA-sponsored study, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. Far from scare tactics, the report reflects a simple tenet of military planning: Wars are best avoided by preparing ahead of time for potential threats; managing the risks.
When Victor argues that the weak link in preserving peace "isn't a dearth in resources but a dearth in governance", he misses the point. Ignoring serious climate problems on the horizon is a dearth of governance. Debates between different groups in the United States about the causes of conflict and climate change are not reasons to defer decision-making or delay action in planning for uncertain eventualities. In fact, it serves to highlight the potential vulnerabilities we face and the need to address them. One of the primary principles of U.S. national security is that we take prudent action to reduce risks and threats. Paying no heed to even potential threats recklessly rejects that principle.
The evidence mounts daily that an extreme weather event could cause key states already suffering from a dearth of governance to spiral out of control. A rise in sea level or water loss from dwindling glaciers could be the trigger. One need only consider the inadequacy of the U.S. response to Hurricane Katrina and the ensuing chaos, loss of life and damage to homes in order to recognize that many regions of the world simply do not have the capacity to cope with multiple major natural disasters wrought, in part, by climate change.
