Reports of Kyoto's death seem to have been exaggerated. Just when
most observers were writing Kyoto's obituary, the international
community reached a breakthrough in Bonn, resolving many of the key
political issues and thereby breathing new life into the Kyoto
process. But although Kyoto has shown surprising resilience, it is
hardly a done deal. Much work remains before it enters into force,
let alone before it can be considered a success. Moreover, despite
the events in Bonn, the United States does not appear likely to join
Kyoto anytime soon. This means that even if Kyoto does go forward, it
will apply to only about a quarter of the world's emissions of
greenhouse gases, with no near-term prospect for expanding its
coverage.
Thus, amid justifiable celebration of the Bonn agreement, a critical
assessment is in order. While Kyoto is an impressive achievement,
bearing little resemblance to the bogeyman of conservative lore, the
very features that make Kyoto so remarkable--its novelty, complexity
and ambition--may also undermine its long-term workability. Even many
of us working over the past few years to bring it into effect were
painfully aware of its weaknesses. Generally, our response was to
suspend disbelief and soldier on. To us, the negotiations had the
same quality that Woody Allen once ascribed to relationships: like a
shark, they had to move forward or they would die. Kyoto may have
problems, we acknowledged, but it's the only game in town. Better to
push it over the finish line and hope it works than to start all over
again, with no guarantee of doing better.
