The Bush Administration and its European allies will soon have to make some tough decisions on what to do about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran's extensive program to develop an independent nuclear fuel cycle has reached a point where, short of a radical counter-revolution, no future Iranian government will be prepared to dismantle it. The focus of current negotiations between Iran on the one hand, and the United States and the European Union on the other, is whether the Islamic Republic would be willing to end some activities, such as uranium enrichment, in exchange for assistance with its nuclear power program.
Iran's leaders will never comply even with these demands unless the United States and the EU can offer the Iranian government far more incentives than they have so far been prepared to put on the table. At the same time, as long as talks are ongoing, the Iranian government is unlikely to precipitate a crisis, at least for the short term. But absent some fundamental change in the Iranian leadership, combined with a willingness on the part of the Bush Administration to take big risks, the United States is on course for a serious crisis with Iran at some point in the coming months.
Nuclear Double Standards
When it comes to Iran's nuclear activities, the Bush Administration, like its predecessors, has tried to balance its formal wish to strengthen the global nuclear non-proliferation regime (which requires a high degree of international cooperation) with its specific demands on Iran and the other remaining member of the Axis of Evil, North Korea.
