ONE OF the defining features of the post-cold-war era is the absence of a peer or near-peer competitor to the United States. This reality, combined with the military inferiority of regional adversaries, has meant that the United States and its allies have enjoyed considerable freedom of action in imposing their will on midsize and smaller states that persistently pursue policies either in gross violation of international norms or counter to U.S. and allied interests.
Unfortunately for America, this is unlikely to be a permanent feature of the international security landscape. So what could the future hold? What should we be preparing for?
One very plausible-and very less-than-desirable-scenario looks something like this. We call it the "Eurasian entente."
The Eurasian Entente
THE EURASIAN entente would be a loose alliance between Russia and China aimed at thwarting the interests of the United States. Instead of seeing the United States as a positive force for global stability, the elites of Russia and China would see the United States primarily as a global actor that stands in the way of their pursuit of important interests. Neither nation is strong enough to challenge the United States on its own, hence their predilection to cooperate in efforts to check U.S. power. One area of cooperation would be widespread collaboration in the field of military modernization, allowing both sides to reduce the gap between themselves and the United States. This relationship would be based upon Russia's still-formidable military-industrial capabilities and China's growing fiscal resources. Among the major elements of the Eurasian entente are a series of industrial agreements institutionalizing strategic partnerships among Russian and Chinese aerospace companies.
