FOOD. MAN'S most-essential resource. And now a cause of war? For years, strategists, policy makers and the rest of the foreign-policy cadre worried the world's vanishing resources would be the cause of conflict. But of course, with energy assets concentrated in the Middle East and crude-oil prices rising from a historical average of $18 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel today, most scenarios centered on a war over oil. At their most imaginative, people have planned for water shortages as a trigger. What no one seemed to be expecting was serious political instability caused by a lack of food.
This is not just threat mongering. Experts around the world have voiced concern. Horst Seehofer, Germany's agriculture minister, has warned that "food conflicts" lurk around the corner. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently told a conference that "if not handled properly, this crisis could result in a cascade" of others. It could become "a multidimensional problem affecting economic growth, social progress and even political security around the world." Josette Sheeran, head of the World Food Program (WFP), added that riots in more than thirty countries were "stark reminders that food insecurity threatens not only the hungry but peace and stability itself." The World Bank estimates that about 100 million people in 2007 were absorbed into the ranks of the poor and hungry because of the surge in food costs, reversing rich countries' steady efforts to halve global hunger by 2015. Jacques Diouf, head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said in April he was surprised the UN Security Council had not yet called on him to explain the crisis.
