Grade Key
A-Superior Success
B-Important Gains
C-Muddling Through
D-Losing Meaningful Ground
F-Red Flag Alert
I. Combating Islamic Extremist Terrorism
Overall Grade: D+
Al-Qaeda headquarters
C
Al-Qaeda affiliated groups (e.g., Jemaah Islamiyah & Lashkar-e-Taiba)
C
Al-Qaeda seeded groups (e.g., London & Madrid bombing culprits)
D+
Al-Qaeda inspired groups (e.g., Hofstad Network & JFK Airport attack plotters)
D
Sympathizers
D-
II. Improving U.S. & Coalition Counterterrorism Capabilities
Overall Grade: C+
Reforming intelligence capabilities
C+
Improving law-enforcement capabilities
C
Transforming military capabilities
C
Improving money-tracking capabilities
C+
Cooperation & coordination between branches of government
B-
Cooperation & coordination between local, state and federal government
C+
Cooperation & coordination between allies
B-
III. Creating an Effective Coalition to Fight Terrorism
Overall Grade: C
Creating effective, regional counterterrorism coalitions
C
Enlisting great powers in the counterterrorism effort
C-
Bringing Muslim nations into the war on terror
D+
European Union-U.S. cooperation in the war on terror
B-
Passage of effective laws to strengthen international counterterrorism standards
C+
Efforts to help willing but weak states better police territory and deny terrorist groups safe havens
C-
Deterring state sponsorship of terrorism
C
IV. Preventing Terrorist Attack with Nukes, Dirty Bombs, Germs & Chemicals
Overall Grade: C
Priority given to preventing terrorists from acquiring chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons
C+
Effectiveness of international counterproliferation policies
C+
Efforts to secure nuclear-weapons materials in Russia
C+
Efforts to stop CBRN technology transfers
B-
Ability to locate and dismantle nuclear-proliferation networks
C
Ability to prevent WMD scientists from cooperating with terrorists
C
Attempts to deter North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons
C+
Attempts to deter Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons
D+
Effectiveness of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime
D+
V. Protecting the U.S. Homeland
Overall Grade: C
Effectiveness of the Department of Homeland Security
C-
Increasing aviation security
B-
Improving cargo screening
C
Protecting U.S. borders
C-
Improving the ability to track potential terrorists/dangerous cargo traveling by air and sea
C+
Protecting critical infrastructure
C-
Increasing the security of mass transit
C-
Preventing cyber attack
C-
Improving emergency response to terrorist attack
C+
VI. Balancing Security & Core Values
Overall Grade: D-
Balance between expanded U.S. counterterrorism authority and respect for civil liberties
D
Appropriateness of domestic intelligence gathering in the United States
C-
Balance between due process and extraordinary threats
D
Balance between international law and national-security concerns
D-
Balance between intelligence gathering through coercive interrogation and respecting commitments against torture
D-
Balance struck on these issues by partners in counterterrorism
D+
VII. Reversing Islamic Radicalization
Overall Grade: D-
Preventing the export and spread of intolerant Wahhabism
D-
Countering the impact of radical imams, mosques and madrassas
D
Combating the spread of radicalism in prisons
D
Destroying bin Laden's image as an Islamic hero
D
Managing the Sunni-Shia divide within Islam to counter the sway of extremists in both camps
D
Supporting moderate and reformist Muslims to help them counter radical idealogues in the struggle for Islam's future
C-
Minimizing the radicalization of second-generation immigrants
C-
Preventing terrorist use of the Internet for recruitment and propaganda
D-
VIII. High-Risk Areas
Overall Grade: D-
Reforming autocratic regimes of the Middle East
D-
Promoting the rise of elected, nonviolent political parties
D-
Preventing takeovers of countries by violent extremists
D+
Stemming high-risk areas from becoming hot beds of al-Qaeda-motivated terrorism
D
Denying sanctuary and safe havens
D
IX. Shaping Long-Term Solutions
Overall Grade: D
Addressing long-term causes of Islamic radicalization, be they economic, religious, political or societal
D-
Helping Muslims in the West assimilate
D+
Implementing foreign-policy necessities while minimizing anger in the Muslim world
D-
Countering conspiracy theories and anti-Americanism with overt and/or covert public diplomacy
D+
Decreasing U.S. dependence on oil
D-
X. Rating the Future Terrorist Threat Over the Next Five Years
Key:
1=Least likely
5=Most likely
