I've received some critical comments about last week's column, especially as it related to the situation in Georgia. According to this criticism, I am apparently missing the strategic opportunity that has presented itself to the United States to reshape the Caucasus.
No, I am not ignorant of that opportunity. I don't think, however, that we are prepared to shoulder the costs - nor are we prepared to offer the Georgians the very real assistance they would need if we are serious about "breaking" Georgia out of the Russian orbit. Let me explain.
Let's start with some basic facts. 54 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Despite U.S. assistance totaling more than $1.8 billion over the last decade, Georgia's foreign debt now stands at $1.8 billion, and there is a very real danger that Georgia might default.
Any new Georgian government will have to consider making deep cuts in expenditures for defense, security, health care and social programs in order to begin to make any repayments on its debts.
The bottom line is that Georgia remains very dependent upon Russia. This is a reality. Acting President Nino Burjanadze's statement, "Georgia should not sell its independence for electricity," is a wonderful slogan for rallying crowds and it plays well in Washington. It presupposes, however, that Georgia has something of value with which to pay for needed supplies of energy. Indeed, one of her first acts as interim president was to appeal to Russia for a deferment on repayment of debts owed for past supplies of electricity and to ask the West for additional financial resources.
