When the Soviet empire imploded some six years ago, most
observers--East and West--assumed that the disappearance of the
Castro regime in Cuba was but a matter of time. After all, no member
of the socialist family of nations had received such generous
economic subsidies from Moscow; none was more culturally vulnerable
to outside influences or more geographically exposed; none had made
so heavy an ideological investment in Lenin's vision of the future.
Having bet on the wrong horse, Castro's Cuba was therefore
destined--to borrow Trotsky's durable phrase--for the dustbin of
history.
So far, at least, those predictions seem to have proven excessively
deterministic. True, in the absence of Soviet oil, machinery,
foodstuffs and other consumer products, Cuban living standards have
fallen catastrophically, and may not yet have touched bottom. True as
well, ordinary Cubans, particularly young people, are deeply
alienated from the regime. (Cuban walls now bear such pungent
inscriptions as "Down with You-Know-Who!") Finally, until the recent
immigration agreement, unprecedented numbers of Cubans were
attempting to leave the island on makeshift boats.
