America cannot depend upon a finite supply of hydrocarbons located in unstable regions of the world for its energy needs. And without energy, economies collapse.
Consider the fate of Georgia. At the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the republic was considered to have one of the strongest economies of the USSR, with a prosperous agricultural sector, a strong industrial base and an entrepreneurial culture. Civil war and political strife helped to weaken the economy, but successive energy crises caused both by Georgia's inability to pay for energy and periodic cut-offs of supplies delivered painful shocks to Georgia's energy-intensive sectors. By 2003 the country's income was a scant 40 percent of its 1991 level, with some 52 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
Energy independence will not occur overnight. We need at least twenty years to move the United States toward full-scale deployment of alternative sources of energy that can help to ensure true energy security. Brazilian ethanol and Russian gas could help us to buy the time we need and ameliorate the costs of the transition.
Energy security is not just about stemming rising prices at the gas pump, but covers literally all aspects of our economic life, from the fuel that powers our farms, transports crops and puts food on the table, to the petrochemicals needed to craft everything from fertilizers to the latest fashions. Energy is essential to almost every feature that defines our quality of life, and this is why ensuring access to energy at an affordable price is a vital national interest.
Concerns about energy security stem from three trends, each of which has worsened in recent years. First, the demand curve has shifted dramatically, owing primarily to faster-than-expected growth in demand from China and India. This factor alone is likely to keep oil above $50 a barrel for the foreseeable future.
