Could Russia contribute to America's energy security? In the wake of the Yukos affair, doubts have been raised about the country's business climate, growing government intervention in key sectors of the economy, and Russia's reliability as a partner in strategic economic sectors. Given the high stakes involved, it is imperative to read Russia "right." With the world's largest deposits of natural gas and third-largest proven reserves of oil, Russia has the potential to make a major contribution to global supplies. Unfortunately, at a time when attention should be focused on an accurate evaluation of the extent of Russia's reserves and the challenges of getting Russian oil and gas to world markets, many discussions still focus on political risk.
To help make sense of Russian policy in the natural resource sector, we can turn to a fairly comprehensive statement from Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, about Russian energy policy. In the years before he was appointed Prime Minister and then elected President, Mr. Putin defended a Candidate of Sciences (kandidat) dissertation at the St. Petersburg Mining Institute (in 1997)
Neither the thesis nor the summary Avtoreferat have been publicly available since Mr. Putin's appointment as Prime Minister. Several people who claim to have read these works state that the thesis deals with three main subjects: the ways natural resources can contribute to the regional economy; strategic planning; and the development of port facilities in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast to facilitate resource exports. and subsequently (1999) published an article in the Institute's journal outlining his views on a natural resource policy for Russia. While we have no way of proving the extent to which these writings influenced subsequent policy, developments since the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovskii are in important ways consistent with the views expressed in Mr. Putin' article.
