Blogs: Paul Pillar

Trump Is No Realist

Costs of the Clenched Fist

Trump's Riyadh Speech: Bowing to the Saudi Regime

Trump's Trip and Taking Sides in the Middle East

Trump's Classified Toys

Paul Pillar

Intelligence rests on trust, and on the confidence of the provider of the information that whoever receives that information will safeguard it.  Such confidence is important at the level of individual spies, who take great risks to their own safety, sometimes in direct betrayal of their own countries, and need to believe that the information they provide and everything having to do with the relationship will be kept secret.   The confidence also is important at the level of governments and intelligence services.  A service sharing information with a foreign counterpart needs to believe that the partnering government will keep secret the information and everything about the sharing relationship.  There needs to be trust that the recipient government will not compromise any of this to the public or to other governments, and certainly not to any states regarded as adversaries.

President Trump’s reported sharing with the Russian foreign minister and Russian ambassador of intelligence that a friendly foreign service had given to the United States was a flagrant betrayal of this trust.  It was highly irresponsible handling of valuable information.  The resulting damage is likely to be significant, starting most directly with reluctance of the originating foreign service to share similar information with the United States in the future.

Although what Trump did in his session with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak does not evoke memories of any comparable incidents in earlier U.S. presidencies, we can get some idea of the probable damage from experience with the more common type of leak in which an anonymous leaker gives secret information to the press.  I recall such episodes from my 28-year career in U.S. intelligence, and specifically from the substantial portion of it spent working on counterterrorism.  In one instance, a piece of intelligence that a foreign partner service had given us leaked and appeared in U.S. newspapers.  Understandably and unsurprisingly, the foreign service suspended its sharing of information with us.  In a later meeting with a foreign counterpart in that country—a senior intelligence official with counterterrorist responsibilities—I had the task of apologizing for the leak, expressing my own government’s regret that such leaks occur, offering assurances that we would do our best to prevent a recurrence, and asking the foreign service to please resume the sharing of information.  Eventually the sharing was resumed, but only after a hiatus in which we had lost the benefit of timely intelligence on terrorist threats.

That was the consequence of a garden-variety leak, which only requires one bad apple to overcome the security consciousness of an entire service and an entire government.  The reaction of a foreign service to willful disclosure by the president of the United States is likely to be stronger.  Every foreign government knows that the president can have access to anything he wants and to the most sensitive of secrets.  Probably most shocking for the foreign services is the willful disregard by the man at the top for safeguarding sensitive information, and the bad example that this sets for everyone below him.

The damage is not limited to the one foreign service that originated the information that Trump divulged.  Every other foreign intelligence, security, and national police force with which the United States has an information-sharing liaison relationship—and it has many—is taking notice.  They are worrying about the political consequences of their intelligence relationship with the Americans becoming a headline item.  They are worrying even more about the safety and willingness to cooperate of their own human agents, on whom they rely for intelligence that is critical for their own country’s security.  There will be greater reluctance, as a result of what happened in the Oval Office, among many of these other foreign services to share information with the United States.

The reluctance extends as well to the level of would-be individual spies, including our own.  Every such agent or potential agent must be thinking extra thoughts about the extra dangers of working clandestinely for a government headed by someone who treats the resulting information so carelessly.  This incident involved reporting from a foreign service, but the impact also will be felt in what U.S. intelligence services can collect.   

The information that Trump reportedly conveyed to the Russians involved terrorism.  There is no other topic on which the United States is more heavily dependent on information shared by friendly foreign services.  Those services are on the front line in confronting many of the terrorist groups and extremists that also are worries to the United States.  Some of the countries concerned have been working hard longer against these targets than the United States.  Besides having the experience, they have the local knowledge, cultural familiarity, language ability and other attributes that give them a better chance of penetrating and collecting against such groups and cells than the United States has.

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