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China Would "Pay a Very High Price" If It Invades, Taiwan Warns

A senior Taiwanese minister has declared that China would “pay a very very high price” if it invaded Taiwan. Chang Hsiao-Yueh, Taiwan’s mainland affairs minister, also called on the United States not to use the self-governed island as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China.

The comments come amid a flare-up in tensions over the possibility of the US restarting naval visits to ports in Taiwan. Chinese diplomat Li Kexin recently warned that the day American naval vessels arrive at the island’s southern port city of Kaohsiung would be the day that China’s People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.

Chang, however, urged Beijing to favor regional peace and stability over assertive behavior.

“I think that we have enough defense to safeguard Taiwan,” she said during a briefing for visiting foreign journalists in Taipei.

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"If they invade Taiwan militarily they will pay a very very high price. And so far I believe that’s the last resort if all the other means [of unification] are failed then finally they will do that. But at this moment, because this government exercises extreme caution not to do anything that would be considered provocative, we do not think that they will do anything like that at this time.”

China has been expanding and modernizing its military in recent years, and experts have argued that Taiwan no longer has the technological edge. Beijing regards Taiwan as a wayward province that one day will return to its control. China’s president, Xi Jinping, used a speech to the 19th party congress in October to warn that Beijing had the capability “to defeat any form of Taiwan independence secession plot.”

“We will never allow any person, any organization, or any political party to split any part of the Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form,” Xi said then.

Commenting on the outlook for cross-Taiwan Strait relations after the party congress, Chang said she expected Beijing to continue to carry out military exercises to show its muscle and to pursue further efforts to isolate Taiwan in the international diplomatic arena. However, she also noted that the congress report did not talk about the use of force against Taiwan, nor did it set out a timetable for unification. Economic and cultural exchanges were also mentioned.

“It’s a mixed-use strategy; there’s a carrot and stick policy towards Taiwan. That’s what we expect in the next five years,” Chang said during the briefing held on December 5.

Donald Trump broke with established protocol by accepting a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, during the presidential transition period in late 2016. Around that time, the US president-election also sought to invoke the “One China” policy as a potential bargaining chip to secure other concessions from Beijing. Since the 1970s, the US has acknowledged that Chinese people on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.

Trump said he did not understand why the US must be bound by the One China policy “unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” After his inauguration, however, the president settled back into established US protocols and agreed to Xi’s request to honor the One China policy.

‘Don’t discuss Taiwan with Xi’

Chang confirmed Taipei had lobbied the US ahead of Trump’s first official visit to Beijing last month not to raise the issue of Taiwan in talks with Xi.

“Basically we keep reminding them that Taiwan should not be used as a chip,” she said. The minister added that any concerns have been allayed: “From our calculation and from our analysis, we don’t think that the United States will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip when the US talks to China about economic and trade issues and North Korea issues.”

This week, the Trump administration reaffirmed the delicate balancing act between maintaining relations with China while supplying arms to Taiwan. “We will maintain our strong ties with Taiwan in accordance with our ‘One China’ policy, including our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for Taiwan’s legitimate defense needs and deter coercion,” the newly released US national security strategy said.

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