The Buzz

Could the F-35 Go to War in Syria?

With the U.S. Marine Corps set to deploy its F-35B Joint Strike Fighter to U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR), Lockheed Martin’s stealthy new jump jet could make its combat debut over the Middle East as tensions ratchet up over Syria. Over the coming days, the United States could initiate hostilities with the Assad regime over a chemical weapons attack Damascus allegedly perpetuated in Douma earlier this month.

The F-35B is set to make its first combat deployment aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Essex as part of the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which will soon head towards the Middle East. “Today is a big deal not only for CENTCOM but for the Marine Corps,” Lt Col. Jaime Macias, Chief of Plans at Marine Corps Forces Central Command, said in a statement on April 4. “This is the newest and most-lethal aircraft that the Joint Force has, and the fact that it’s coming into the CENTCOM theater and potentially seeing some combat operations is a big deal.”

Penetrating Russia’s Anti-Access Bubbles

Given the presence of Russian forces in Syria equipped with potent area air defense systems including the powerful S-300V4 and the S-400, the F-35’s stealth and sensors could be particularly useful during combat operations over Syria. “What the F-35B gives you is multi–role capabilities, so now you have one aircraft that can do a broad range of capabilities and do it to a level that none of the legacy aircraft have been able to do to this day,” Macias said.

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Particularly useful will be the F-35’s potent sensor suite, which will be essential to ensure that U.S. forces do not accidentally engage Russia military forces—which could lead to a much wider and much more dangerous war. “The F-35B is more than just an aircraft,” Macias said. “It’s a system of systems that’s flying; its got sensors and anti-axis aerial denial capabilities.”

The Threat of War

The threat of war is very real. In recent days President Donald Trump has all but stated that he intends to attack Syria—and has openly and publicly taunted Russia in the process. “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria,” Trump tweeted on April 11. “Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!’ You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Russia Urges Restraint

Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia urged the United States to show restraint. “We hope that there will be no point of no return — that the U.S. and their allies will refrain from military action against a sovereign state,” Nebenzia said according to the Washington Post.

Nebenzia noted that the danger of escalation is very real because of the proximity of U.S. and Russian forces in Syria. “The danger of escalation is higher than simply Syria, because our military are there on the invitation of the Syrian government,” Nebenzia said.

Escalation in the event of a U.S. strike on Syria is a worry for U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis too. “On a strategic level, it's how do we keep this from escalating out of control, uh, if you get my drift on that,” Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee on April 12.

Is Trump Trying to De-escalate?

Meanwhile, Trump said that despite his April 11 tweet, military action may or may not be imminent. “Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!” Trump tweeted on April 12.“In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our ‘Thank you America?’”

With his latest tweet, Trump has given his administration some breathing room. Indeed, as Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee on April 12, military action against Syria “is not yet in the offing.”

Where is the Evidence?

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