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Millions Could Die If North Korea Attacked Seoul with a Nuclear Weapon

The Democratic People’s Republic Korea should be a nothingburger in the twenty-first century. It’s at the bottom tier of pretty much every human development, economic, corruption and freedom index in circulation. Transparency International ranks North Korea 174 out of 176 on its corruption perceptions index, outdone by only South Sudan and Somalia. It’s freedom ranking is abysmal and would make Josef Stalin blush: out of a scale of 0 (least free) to 100, Pyongyang comes in at a 3. Kim Jong-un’s national economy is a paltry $28.5 billion, smaller than the U.S. state of Vermont.

What North Korea used to export to China, Africa and Southeast Asia with ease are now technically violations of international law. This August, the UN Security Council passed a resolution that cut Pyongyang’s $3 billion in export earnings by roughly a third. Importing North Korean seafood is now an illegal act.

The only reason the United States or the UN Security Council pay even remote attention to North Korea and its portly dictator is because the isolated and poverty-stricken “Hermit Kingdom” is constantly improving upon its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. If Pyongyang couldn’t physically hold its southern neighbor hostage with the threat of destroying Seoul, one of the world’s most congested cities, North Korea would be a third- or fourth-tier priority.

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The country’s frenetic missile testing schedule, and a looming fear among South Korean intelligence officials that another nuclear test is around the corner, provide the Kim regime with a few aces in its deck of cards. It is the North’s considerable conventional power along the Demilitarized Zone and its weapons of mass destruction that prevent a more powerful nation like the United States, South Korea or Japan from ending the Kim family’s reign for good.

If there ever arrived a point in time when President Donald Trump believed that authorizing a preemptive military strike was the best option to combat the threat North Korea’s nuclear and missile capability posed to the United States, it’s not difficult to predict ahead of time how Kim would retaliate. The biggest bang for Kim’s buck has always entailed lunging for South Korea’s economic and political jugular, and enveloping the South Korean capital with rings of cannon and artillery fire. Seoul, a metropolitan area of at least 10 million people, would be the prime target of opportunity for Pyongyang.

American and South Korean soldiers staring down North Korean troops at the 38th Parallel understand this quite well, as do the military strategists and planners in Washington whose job centers on mapping out every conceivable scenario during the beginning of a conflict. Indeed, the U.S. Army constructed an $11 billion base from scratch 40 miles south of Seoul for the very reason of getting U.S. troops out of North Korea’s line of fire.

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