Blogs: The Buzz

Asia's Next Big Story: China, India and Australia's Economic Dance

The Buzz

The BJP manifesto may be better suited as a sort of long-term road map of what India needs to be successful. The notion of building 100 new cities may sound excessive, bringing to mind the ghost cities of China. But India will require some new cities to accommodate urbanization that McKinsey estimates will result in India having 11% of the global urban population in 2025. As people migrate from rural to urban areas, wages and spending tend to increase. With a population of more than 1.2 billion people and trailing China in urbanization, India has ample room to begin the shift from the farm to the city. China, even with its ghost cities and previous rapid urbanization, is estimated to have 13 million people move to cities per year between now and 2030—more than the population of New York City every 12 months. India is both more populous and less urbanized China. If the BJP plan is implemented—even marginally, the benefits to Australia could be similar in many respects to the Chinese boom.

There is some movement between Australia and India to deepen ties. The Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement is in its fifth round of negotiations, and there appears to be support for the agreement in Australia. A study finds that while the agreement would benefit Australia more than India, it would be beneficial to both. At the moment, the level of Australian exports to India tends to be volatile and heavily tied to commodity prices.

Australia cannot shrug China off either. China and Australia have been in talks around a free trade agreement of their own for almost a decade. But after the 20th round of negotiations, they are aiming to conclude talks by the end of 2014. While China is likely to slow its growth in infrastructure spending in coming years, the level of spending is unlikely to drop over the medium-term.

Are these the first signs of an Asian economic triumvirate? Possibly, but it will take a tremendous amount of cooperation between countries which historically have not been overly friendly. China is scouring the world for investment opportunities, India can oblige, and Australia can supply the material. Australia, though shifting from a reliance on China in some respects, would be more tied to China than ever before in others. For all three countries to reach their full potential, it will be necessary to cooperate.

India’s expected tempered rate of urbanization would be better for Australia than the current Chinese boom. A steady, slow, and long urbanization cycle would allow Australia to continue its recent boom while avoiding internal economic bubbles. There will be volatility—with the concentration of trade to China there can be little else. But Australia has yet to reap the full benefit from one of the great urbanization stories of the 21st century.

Image: Tony Abbott/Flickr. 

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Obama's Strategy in Iraq: Operation No Boots on the Ground

The Buzz

The BJP manifesto may be better suited as a sort of long-term road map of what India needs to be successful. The notion of building 100 new cities may sound excessive, bringing to mind the ghost cities of China. But India will require some new cities to accommodate urbanization that McKinsey estimates will result in India having 11% of the global urban population in 2025. As people migrate from rural to urban areas, wages and spending tend to increase. With a population of more than 1.2 billion people and trailing China in urbanization, India has ample room to begin the shift from the farm to the city. China, even with its ghost cities and previous rapid urbanization, is estimated to have 13 million people move to cities per year between now and 2030—more than the population of New York City every 12 months. India is both more populous and less urbanized China. If the BJP plan is implemented—even marginally, the benefits to Australia could be similar in many respects to the Chinese boom.

There is some movement between Australia and India to deepen ties. The Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement is in its fifth round of negotiations, and there appears to be support for the agreement in Australia. A study finds that while the agreement would benefit Australia more than India, it would be beneficial to both. At the moment, the level of Australian exports to India tends to be volatile and heavily tied to commodity prices.

Australia cannot shrug China off either. China and Australia have been in talks around a free trade agreement of their own for almost a decade. But after the 20th round of negotiations, they are aiming to conclude talks by the end of 2014. While China is likely to slow its growth in infrastructure spending in coming years, the level of spending is unlikely to drop over the medium-term.

Are these the first signs of an Asian economic triumvirate? Possibly, but it will take a tremendous amount of cooperation between countries which historically have not been overly friendly. China is scouring the world for investment opportunities, India can oblige, and Australia can supply the material. Australia, though shifting from a reliance on China in some respects, would be more tied to China than ever before in others. For all three countries to reach their full potential, it will be necessary to cooperate.

India’s expected tempered rate of urbanization would be better for Australia than the current Chinese boom. A steady, slow, and long urbanization cycle would allow Australia to continue its recent boom while avoiding internal economic bubbles. There will be volatility—with the concentration of trade to China there can be little else. But Australia has yet to reap the full benefit from one of the great urbanization stories of the 21st century.

Image: Tony Abbott/Flickr. 

Pages

Russia: The World's Second-Largest Immigration Haven

The Buzz

The BJP manifesto may be better suited as a sort of long-term road map of what India needs to be successful. The notion of building 100 new cities may sound excessive, bringing to mind the ghost cities of China. But India will require some new cities to accommodate urbanization that McKinsey estimates will result in India having 11% of the global urban population in 2025. As people migrate from rural to urban areas, wages and spending tend to increase. With a population of more than 1.2 billion people and trailing China in urbanization, India has ample room to begin the shift from the farm to the city. China, even with its ghost cities and previous rapid urbanization, is estimated to have 13 million people move to cities per year between now and 2030—more than the population of New York City every 12 months. India is both more populous and less urbanized China. If the BJP plan is implemented—even marginally, the benefits to Australia could be similar in many respects to the Chinese boom.

There is some movement between Australia and India to deepen ties. The Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement is in its fifth round of negotiations, and there appears to be support for the agreement in Australia. A study finds that while the agreement would benefit Australia more than India, it would be beneficial to both. At the moment, the level of Australian exports to India tends to be volatile and heavily tied to commodity prices.

Australia cannot shrug China off either. China and Australia have been in talks around a free trade agreement of their own for almost a decade. But after the 20th round of negotiations, they are aiming to conclude talks by the end of 2014. While China is likely to slow its growth in infrastructure spending in coming years, the level of spending is unlikely to drop over the medium-term.

Are these the first signs of an Asian economic triumvirate? Possibly, but it will take a tremendous amount of cooperation between countries which historically have not been overly friendly. China is scouring the world for investment opportunities, India can oblige, and Australia can supply the material. Australia, though shifting from a reliance on China in some respects, would be more tied to China than ever before in others. For all three countries to reach their full potential, it will be necessary to cooperate.

India’s expected tempered rate of urbanization would be better for Australia than the current Chinese boom. A steady, slow, and long urbanization cycle would allow Australia to continue its recent boom while avoiding internal economic bubbles. There will be volatility—with the concentration of trade to China there can be little else. But Australia has yet to reap the full benefit from one of the great urbanization stories of the 21st century.

Image: Tony Abbott/Flickr. 

Pages

China's Growing Military Might Has Japan on Edge: Tokyo Responds

The Buzz

The BJP manifesto may be better suited as a sort of long-term road map of what India needs to be successful. The notion of building 100 new cities may sound excessive, bringing to mind the ghost cities of China. But India will require some new cities to accommodate urbanization that McKinsey estimates will result in India having 11% of the global urban population in 2025. As people migrate from rural to urban areas, wages and spending tend to increase. With a population of more than 1.2 billion people and trailing China in urbanization, India has ample room to begin the shift from the farm to the city. China, even with its ghost cities and previous rapid urbanization, is estimated to have 13 million people move to cities per year between now and 2030—more than the population of New York City every 12 months. India is both more populous and less urbanized China. If the BJP plan is implemented—even marginally, the benefits to Australia could be similar in many respects to the Chinese boom.

There is some movement between Australia and India to deepen ties. The Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement is in its fifth round of negotiations, and there appears to be support for the agreement in Australia. A study finds that while the agreement would benefit Australia more than India, it would be beneficial to both. At the moment, the level of Australian exports to India tends to be volatile and heavily tied to commodity prices.

Australia cannot shrug China off either. China and Australia have been in talks around a free trade agreement of their own for almost a decade. But after the 20th round of negotiations, they are aiming to conclude talks by the end of 2014. While China is likely to slow its growth in infrastructure spending in coming years, the level of spending is unlikely to drop over the medium-term.

Are these the first signs of an Asian economic triumvirate? Possibly, but it will take a tremendous amount of cooperation between countries which historically have not been overly friendly. China is scouring the world for investment opportunities, India can oblige, and Australia can supply the material. Australia, though shifting from a reliance on China in some respects, would be more tied to China than ever before in others. For all three countries to reach their full potential, it will be necessary to cooperate.

India’s expected tempered rate of urbanization would be better for Australia than the current Chinese boom. A steady, slow, and long urbanization cycle would allow Australia to continue its recent boom while avoiding internal economic bubbles. There will be volatility—with the concentration of trade to China there can be little else. But Australia has yet to reap the full benefit from one of the great urbanization stories of the 21st century.

Image: Tony Abbott/Flickr. 

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