South Korea Needs to Realize That North Korea Isn't Going to Collapse
With a new president in the White House, it is the season of reviews and reassessments, with no problem more thorny than North Korea. President Barack Obama apparently told President Donald Trump that North Korea is at the top of America’s foreign challenges. As North Korea continues its missile and nuclear tests, this is almost certainly the case. The yield of the North’s most recent nuclear test has exceeded that of weapons used by the United States during World War II. The country’s missile program has dabbled in submarine-launched ballistic missiles, road mobile launchers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. If these platforms genuinely work, then North Korea could become the first new country to be able to strike the continental United States since the depths of the Cold War decades ago. Coupled with President Trump’s explosive, erratic personality, the possibility of a serious clash is greater than it has been in previous years.
There is a strong sense that North Korea lives on borrowed time. As Victor Cha writes, it is the “impossible state.” Its economy is weak. Its ostensible ideology is long since bankrupt. Its people are increasingly aware that their southern kinsmen live vastly healthier, wealthier and happier lives. The regime, for all its ferocity, is alienated from its own people whose uprising it fears. Its capital approximates a feudal city-state estranged from its own impoverished piedmont. It is extremely dependent on China for licit trade, illicit trade and financial services. Its conventional forces are technological dated. Hence the regular predictions, going back decades, that North Korea’s fall is imminent. It seems like we only need to find the final magic bullet to finally put this zombie down.
But of course, it does not collapse. Even if it violates much of what we “know” in political science and economics, it has some source of strength—extreme nationalism, a genuine belief in the Kim cult, the regime’s willingness to do anything to survive—that helps it through crises which would bring down similar nation states. North Korea has survived the end of the Cold War; the cutoff of Soviet aid; the death of founder-turned-godhead Kim Il-sung; the famine of the late 1990s; the death of the founder’s heir, Kim Jong-il; and ever-tightening United Nations sanctions. If the North has survived all this, then none of the various ideas out there for change—chasing North Korean money in Chinese banks, inward information flows, airstrikes on missile sites, more sanctions—are a likely to be a magic bullet. All are worth discussion, of course, but given what the regime has survived to date, we must admit that it will be with us for a long time. This will be a long, grinding stalemate—as it has been to date—in which the side that “hangs tough” will triumph.
Seen in that light, the Obama administration’s much-maligned “strategic patience” is not so bad after all. It recognizes that the democracies on the outside—particularly South Korea, Japan and the United States—can do little to proactively force change in North Korea. They can cut it off and harden themselves against its provocations and misbehavior, but it will be a long grind. Sanctions, missile defense, the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the crackdown on North Korea’s diplomatic relationships (which frequently double as sanctions) are necessary to slowly choke off the country and push it back to a precarious, exclusive dependence on its Chinese patron. Just as the Soviet Union was slowly internationally isolated and eventually ground to a halt, so too can the democracies of this cold war can hunker down.