As the Islamist nightmare envelops Pakistan, the Obama administration ponders what the United States should do. But the bitter reality is that the United States is already doing too much in Pakistan. It is the American shadow everywhere, the Pakistani feeling of being smothered by the U.S. embrace, that gives the Islamists their principal rallying cry.
Evidence is everywhere of what the Economist calls “a rising tide of anti-American passion.” The leading spokesman of traditional Muslim theology, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), opposes the “war on terror” because “it is an American war” and blames a U.S. plot for the recent assassination of the moderate Punjab governor, Salman Taseer.
The endless procession of U.S. leaders paying goodwill visits to Islamabad, most recently Vice President Joe Biden, evokes sneers and ridicule in the Urdu-language press, accompanied by cartoons showing Pakistanis scratching fleas crawling over their bodies. The late special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, liked free-swinging encounters with Pakistani journalists that left a trail of bitterness expressed in the Urdu media, but this did not deter Holbrooke and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from return visits.
To calm the situation down, the United States should start by phasing out drone attacks in the Pashtun border areas with their massive civilian casualties and should end the $1 billion plus in annual subsidies to the armed forces that make them look like American puppets. At the same time, less visible education and development aid provided by the Kerry-Lugar bill should be continued, together with the International Monetary Fund credits that keep the Pakistani state afloat, and access to U.S. markets for Pakistani textile exports should be increased.
Instead of publicly prodding the Punjabi-dominated armed forces to step up their offensive against Pashtun tribal militants in the Afghan border areas, the United States should recognize that Islamabad is afraid of stirring up Pashtun ethnic sentiment there that could break up the fragile multiethnic Pakistani federation.
The Pashtuns of the former–Northwest Frontier Province (now called Kyber Pakhtunkhwa) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have an ancient history of resisting Punjabi incursions, but the Army did not come into direct conflict with the Pashtuns following the creation of Pakistan until July 2002, when, at the behest of the United States, it sent a division into FATA to attack al-Qaeda and Taliban forces at key transit points on the Afghan border. Heavy casualties resulted, displacing some fifty thousand people. This was a historic break with the autonomy agreements negotiated by the British with FATA tribes and honored until then by Pakistan. As the “war on terror” has proceeded, the FATA Pashtuns have been politicized and radicalized as never before.
The underlying reason that Pakistan’s U.S. links are so unpopular and make such a tempting target for the Islamists is that America is perceived as anti-Muslim.
The Islamists focus not only on Muslim casualties in next door Afghanistan, but above all on U.S. support for Israel and on the American military presence throughout the Arabian Sea , the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf in areas near Pakistan.
Why does the United States keep pouring aid into Pakistan despite its active support for the Taliban in Afghanistan at the expense of U.S.-NATO forces and its inability or unwillingness to help the United States root out al-Qaeda from its mountain sanctuaries?
American officials point to its arsenal of seventy to ninety nuclear weapons, arguing that a tight U.S. embrace of the Pakistani military and intelligence elite is necessary to make sure that another nuclear-proliferation racket does not emerge like the one organized by nuclear czar A. Q. Khan.
This is an understandable concern because many of the same generals who colluded with Khan are still in high places. But the larger danger to the United States is that the nuclear arsenal will fall into the hands of the Islamist sympathizers inside the nuclear establishment, or that the Islamists will completely take over the armed forces, branding current military leaders as U.S. stooges.
While doing less elsewhere in Pakistan, the United States should do more to support anti-Islamist forces along the southern Arabian Sea coast. First, it should support anti-Islamist Sindhi leaders of the Sufi variant of Islam with their network of 124,000 shrines. Most important, it should aid the 6 million Baluch insurgents fighting for independence from Pakistan in the face of growing ISI repression. Pakistan has given China a base at Gwadar in the heart of Baluch territory. So an independent Baluchistan would serve U.S. strategic interests in addition to the immediate goal of countering Islamist forces.
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Change in the Macro Institutional Design: Confedral Islamic Republics of PakistanThough provisions exist in 1973 constitution, they have not been implemented and given the faltering legitimacy of Pakistan government coupled with deep informal "back room" nexus of civilian politicians, bureaucrats and military, one cannot say with confidence whether even after implementation of 1973 Constitution any immediate or short term changes could be seen.I suggest an overhaul of macro-institutional design of Pakistan and convert its federal system into a confedral one where each province will have nearly a state like power however, would be tied to each other for collective defense and maintenance of nuclear arsenal.Changes of federal-province relations and change in bureaucracy and development of local governance would be the best guarantee against an islamic insurgency or "muddling through" Pakistan for next few decades.1. Federal-Province Relations.Government of the Confedration would consist of a President elected by a senate composed of equal members from four or five regions of Pakistan (four being Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan, Khyber-Pankhtoonkhwa and fifth being Azad Kashmir). The Senate would be the main caretaker body, however, only it will have restricted competences, namely, Overseeing Inter Province Trade (which too would be based on individual agreements between the provinces), Joint Military Force (which would be formed of equal troops from different provinces and placed directly under the civilian leadership, further details on Military below), Islamic Ideology (bringing the Council of Islamic Ideology directly under the legislature) and Coordinating Foreign Policy (which will also be based on individual agreements between the provinces, however, one province cannot carry out an agreement to directly and negatively effect any other province) and Maintenance of Nuclear Arsenal (though the final decision wrt nuclear arsenal should be vested with the President of Confedration, however, regular oversight functions should be given to the senate. Finally, a minority affairs ministry must be set up which could coordinate actions with different provinces. The senate will be on the lines of Westminister model. Two courts, one Federal Shariat Court (modus operandi can be discussed by the provinces) and Confederal Supreme Court can be set up to support the Confederal Government. Also, every law passed by the senate must be ratified by the legislatures of the individual provinces and its constitutionality must be guaranteed by the Confederal Supreme Court.Apart from the above mentioned competences, no other competence would be vested with the Confederation government. The four and five(in case Azad Kashmir decides to become independent or join with either KP or Punjab) provinces will have complete competence in all the areas of governance and political decision making. They will have complete competence to make laws and set up law and order machinery within their province. Every Province will be a Republic and will have power to negotiate international treaties, participate in international conferences and maintain an Army. This would directly transfer power to local elite who even if are not the dreamed of legislators and decision makers would enjoy far greater legitimacy and as every province would be free to design its own institution, neither America nor anyone would be required to meddle in the internal working of the state.Development of Local Government.For effective decentralization to work and allow deliberative and participatory politics to develop, local governance must be developed and UN through its different agencies can help to develop local infrastructure based on local customs to ensure a more legitimate governance bodies are set up. This would in long run will have caressing effect on the population and would act as the strongest safeguard against any form of extremism.Minority ProtectionMinority protection laws must be guaranteed and established as part of the Confederal constitution. Each minority group must be given fixed representation in local government and provincial legislature. Also, tangible guarantees for communities settled from different parts of the country should also be included.BureaucracyInstead of having british era centralized bureaucracy, each province should have its own bureaucracy to carry out different work while sharing the decision making with local government bodies in each province.ArmyEach province can have an army of its own. Each army must be numerically and in terms of technology must be equal to each other. Also, they should have no right to enter any civilian areas and must be tasked to defend borders only. Also, the borders between the provinces will be guarded by police force and not the army. The army would be directly under the Joint Military Force at the confedration. Also, no security force, whether police or army(with orders from confederation govt) can cross provincial borders. I think with above safeguards and slow but steady implementation, a stable and secure Pakistan can be a possibility in near term. The provincial governments, or Republics under the idea would have no or very less incentive to work with islamists or afghan taliban. A political agreement between KP and other provinces along with US and Afghanistan can be developed to handle these issues. Also, present distrust and dislike of the government at Islamabad would also decrease and with increasing chance to participate, the youth would not be forced into the hands of islamists.Please feel free to comment back.
Hurray for trying to wake people regarding Pentagon/CIA support for the Baloch separatist movement. The Pentagon has long supported the secession of energy and mineral rich Balochistan from
Pakistan to become a US client state - just like energy and mineral rich
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and the other former Soviet republics. The American public, particularly, nees to know about CIA support for the Baloch separatist movement and their
efforts to disrupt operations at the Chinese-built
Gwadar Port
(and the energy transit route for Iranian oil and natural gas destined for China).
Including the fact that the CIA is training young Baloch separatists in
bomb-making and other terrorist activities. I blog about this at
http://stuartbramhall.aegauthorblogs.com...
Where I have also posted a recent map of Free Balochistan (from their website).
Had CIA helped Balochs to protect their land from Pakistani occupation,to-day Paki Military have been turned in Balochistan. American helpedthe Jehadi groups in Afghanistan with Stinger missiles to fight against Soviet Union. Pakistani Military is killing the secular Balochs to weaken their strugglefor the future Talibani take over, not only Balochistan but in whole of Pakistan. Free Balochistan is the guarantee to defeat Talibans, Al-quida andthe expedions of Pakistani military in South Asia. The stability ofAfghanistan depends upon the freedom of Balochistan.