Even those situations that should have raised red flags—such as a brutal 2007 crackdown, Georgia’s competitive authoritarian stagnation and the prison scandal—failed to alert all but a few Georgia watchers of the UNM’s unraveling popularity. And much-touted polls, bandied as proof of the ruling party’s popular support, only seem to demonstrate that a strong plurality of respondents were unwilling to honestly state their preferences—possibly out of fear of political reprisals.
“The government was able to cast themselves as a positive force and the opposition as a negative force,” points out Tsereteli, who believes that preferences for simple narratives allowed “monolithic” views of the electoral contest to take root. This view was echoed by Patten, who noted the Georgian government’s success in crafting a brand around such dynamics.
“The Georgian [UNM] government had a great PR operation,” says Patten, pointing out that Georgian Dream's own operation was “less smooth.”
But the UNM’s public-relations savvy may have contributed to their own downfall. Surrounded by an extensive strategic-communications infrastructure that sought to define the race as a stark geopolitical choice between the liberal West and pro-Moscow kleptocracy, the UNM and its advisers were blindsided by a referendum mostly based around domestic concerns.
For the foreign-policy community, the Georgian election is a cautionary tale of the dangers of mistaking branding for reality and choosing personalities over institutions. Given such a misread by the West of ground-level realities and apparent faith in the ruling party’s ability to stay in power, it’s fortunate that the Georgian people have chosen a party that has pledged to continue the country’s Western path.
When Ivanishvili announced his political goals in fall 2011, many found it easy to write him off as yet another curious addition—if an outsized one—to Georgia’s drama-prone politics. But with his party set to control a majority of seats in Georgia’s parliament, no one is writing him off anymore.
Michael Hikari Cecire is an Black Sea and Eurasia regional analyst and an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, where he contributes to the Project on Democratic Transitions.
Comments
Using active lobbyists for vindicating and argument that is wrong do not help very much. You write that Patten worked earlier for UNM and now for Alasania but you forgot to tell that it is Bidzina who pays him since last year. Real good amounts also, information about this have been published elsewhere. For this reason you only became a part of giving Bidzina a better acceptance in the west and this he do not deserve. You also look less like an objective analyst and rather something like Lincoln Mitchell ‘the academic’ who worked for Bidzinas campaign and took part lauding Bidzina in his propaganda film about himself for the US market.You write that west got Georgia wrong, I beg to differ. You say that the prison scandal supercharged a tendency when the truth is the opposite. Tendency for Bidzina and the Georgian Dream was down, down, down. That an event like the prison scandal reversed the processes no one can foretell except Bidzina, Patten and some close members of their team. They sat on the tapes for a long time knowing that the very proud and emotional Georgians would throw their votes against where Misha was not. Of the 3,5 millions voters in Georgia only 34% voted for the Georgian Dream. A majority 38% preferred not to vote at all. So much they dislike and distrust Bidzina and his nine party haphazard coalitions. There is a very visual scandal on three opposition TV-channels and still a majority of the people can not find reason to vote for Bidzina. Not very impressive. What the Georgians... wants we will see.There have not been big celebrations in Georgia for not many people like the Georgian Dream or Bidzina. No victory concerts with popular bands or any kind of support from writers or intellectuals. If you follow the discussion on social media here you would find the situation is rather the opposite. People with spine and brain unconnected to Misha deplores the on averege 14 year older ‘new’ government. When the students want young pure people they find grandpas friends from Vake and old companions of the corrupted Shevardnadze period. I almost feel sad for Edika himself, why is he not invited when all of his old friends are.Bidzina planned a great revenge but he had been forced to change track completely. From saying that street protests are great, the lawful president must go and there will be punishment for everyone that committed a crime, he now smile and just try to make three Misha friendly TV channels loyal to him since he cannot accept having only three loyal to himself. Problem with revenge seekers are that they always find crimes that their opponents have done, from Fidel, to Yanukovych, Lukashenko and Putin. It’s the same anti-democratic primitive mentality. Did you hear Putin say he imprison innocent people, no, of course not.I’m very glad that Europe and the US stopped the revenge bonanza that was planned but some have still not read or understood the writings on the wall. The oppositional Bidzina loyalist, homophobic, xenophobic scandal paper Asaval Dasavali published names of everyone in working in the Gldani prison with a hint it was time to revenge with lynch mobs. Human rights defenders and writers have protested against this. Famous Georgian writer Zaza Burchuladze was beaten down and forced to hospital for taking part. This beating was excused by Bidzina loyalist Lela Gaprindashvili who said everything was Mishas fault. Bidzina used to say he was worse than Putin and that he had done nothing good.The west got Georgia right, Georgian Dream is a horrible mixture and they blew a well prepared Soviet scandal to get more support since they had no arguments or policy.