Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, Russian prime minister Dimitri Medvedev and Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan. Late last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton began her tour of Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. In Scandinavia, she was to address several forums on climate change and green energy. While in Sweden, she also planned to discuss Internet freedom, Afghanistan and the Middle East. But it is in the mountains of the Caucasus and Turkey where Hillary will face the red meat of geopolitics: bloody ethnic conflicts over turf; religiously motivated massacres; and threshold nuclear states with global reach.
This final leg of the tour will be the toughest. On June 4, Hillary will meet with Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan; the next day she will open the U.S.–Georgia Strategic Partnership Commission plenary session in Batumi, Georgia, and see Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili; and later she will visit Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev in Baku.
Meeting the Macho Men
Meeting with all three South Caucasus presidents opens an opportunity to push for talks on the disputed region of Nagorno–Karabakh, which have stalled after almost two decades of Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory. The occupation of Karabakh is the powder keg that threatens to blow up the South Caucasus. If this happens, the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan will endanger energy transit from the Caspian Sea, threaten Georgia (Russia may demand troop transit to assist its ally Armenia) and boost the regional involvement of another Armenian ally—Iran. None of this is in the U.S. national interest.
The George W. Bush administration attempted to force the sides to negotiate in 2001 under the tutelage of then secretary of state Colin Powell, to no avail.
It is not very likely that Armenia and Azerbaijan would listen to Clinton’s calls for an equitable resolution, which should include liberation of the occupied Azerbaijan lands. After all, years of mediation by Russian ex-president Dmitri Medvedev, who developed excellent relations with both Baku and Yerevan, have not resulted in a breakthrough.
Azerbaijan’s Eurovision Moment
Another priority for the secretary of state’s visit to Baku should be to express support for the small but energy-rich Caspian state and its president in the face of incessant Iranian terrorist activities and plotting. Just recently, a massive Iranian-directed campaign to murder American and Israeli diplomats, their family members and others in Baku came to light. Iranian agents were planning to kill diplomats and their families with car bombs and silenced sniper rifles and to attack American and Jewish community targets.
Similar attacks took place in India, Georgia and Thailand and were planned elsewhere. This is part of a global Iranian terrorist campaign that also targeted the Saudi embassy in Washington, D.C. Nevertheless, the Obama administration went out of its way not to blame the Iranian regime for the terrorist plots.
The recent host of the popular television show Eurovision Song Contest, Azerbaijan demonstrates levels of interethnic and interreligious tolerance unknown in the broader Muslim world, especially neighboring Iran. This model should be acknowledged and promoted in U.S. public-diplomacy efforts aimed at the Muslim world. At the same time, Eurovision-related news coverage often focused on the country’s problems, such as graft and occasional political repressions. Azerbaijan can do more to improve its multiparty system, the pluralism in the media, good governance, transparency and the rule of law. Clinton should address these issues in a balanced, friendly way. After all, Azerbaijan sided with the United States on Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and nonrecognition of Russian occupation of parts of neighboring Georgia.
A Tough To-Do List
In Armenia, Clinton should demand the renewal of peace negotiations under the umbrella of the Minsk Group. Russia and the U.S. cochair this group. Based on the 1996 OSCE Lisbon Declaration and the 2007 Madrid Statement, the negotiations’ aim is to have Armenian forces withdraw from Azerbaijani territories and allow hundreds of thousands of refugees to return to their homes. She should also call for Yerevan to recognize that its close ties with Tehran are incompatible with a friendly relationship with (and U.S. assistance to) Armenia.
In Georgia, Clinton should proclaim U.S. support for Georgian territorial integrity and call for a negotiated end to Russia’s occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and their return, in one form or another, to Georgia’s fold. It will be a particular challenge for the secretary of state to voice U.S. support for the future Georgian membership in NATO given the president’s preoccupation with the Russian “reset.” Yet, she may repeat her call from the May Chicago NATO summit that “our commitment to enlargement, done right, [is] a core element of our purpose and our community.”
Comments
The NK conflict must be settled, and Georgia must be encouraged to make the necessary reforms and keep its orientation towards the west. Turkey must be discouraged from supporting the rise of anti-western, radical Islamist forces to reign in the ME. It should improve its relations with Israel for, there is no sense but mad anti Israeli sentiments for Turkey’s conduct. Turkey must not be rewarded for promoting regimes that will further exacerbate tensions in the ME and for hijacking pro-democracy revolutions.
As for Azerbiajan: All support, training, and equipping should be contingent on tangible political reforms. The prospects of renewed confrontations must not be encouraged by improving relations with Azerbaijan without the latter refraining from escalation and war threats against Armenia. Further, only the government of Azerbiajan and Cohen fall short of calling Azerbaijan a brutal hereditary dictatorship. The only tolerance Azerbaijan displays is towards Azeri Jewish community driven by Aliev’s need for Israeli support against Armenia. Azeris in general do not have any sympathy to Israel or to Jews. Other religions, sects, and ethnicities are heavily discriminated against. See: Azerbaijan: Sounding the Alarm on Religious Intolerance http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65359In Azerbaijan, a thug inherited power from his father. Like father like son, Ilham is a repressive brutal dictator. Just because he is open to having covert relations with Israel where “80%” of this relationship is invisible and refuses to even open an embassy does not excuse “intellectuals” to start the model propaganda to promote a repressive and intolerant regime like the Alieve regime. If America follows Ariel’s advice it will most definitely lose whatever credibility it still has. What Eurovision exposed, Ariel, in case you do not know is how the Azeri government is intolerant of slightest dissent, displaced its own citizens, and brutally tortured and jailed democracy activists and journalists. See: BBC Panorama - Eurovision's Dirty Secret Azerbaijan http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oea2XGsIbvI&feature=relatedThere are refugees from Armenia and Azerbiajan which add—more or less—to a million. Tens of thousands of Azeris and Armenians were displaced. In terms of numbers more Azeris than Armenians were displaced, in terms of proportion to population more Amrenians were displaced; the bottom line is no Armenian remain in AZ and no Azeri in Am. So, an objective writer would see the facts for what they are and would advocate for a durable and just resolution of the conflict. Btw, as bad as Iran is—and it is horrible—it is still better than AZ. Even in Iran you see Jews in parliament along with other groups, contested elections—though remain fraudulent—opposed forces represented in parliament and quotas for minorities, and different presidents. You cannot say the same about Azerbaijan.
Ariel, check these links to broaden you horizons- Azerbaijan and Eurovision http://www.economist.com/node/21555973 - Azerbaijani police break up opposition rally in runup to Eurovision http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/24/azerbaijan-police-break-opposition-rally-eurovision?newsfeed=true- Critics Say Eurovision Has Done Little to Stop Azeri Regime's Rights Abuses http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65435- The Azerbaijanis who aren't feeling the Eurovision glow http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/17/azerbaijanis-eurovision-ebu-baku - the issue of Azerbaijan's awful human rights record- terrible record on freedom of expression- Human Rights Watch- 'Tortured' singer flees Azerbaijan days before Eurovision- Azerbaijan: Sounding the Alarm on Religious Intolerance http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65359- Azerbaijan: Baku is Bulldozing its Past http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65323- With the Eurovision approaching, it’s time to draw attention to the lack of human rights in Azerbaijan http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/04/23/with-the-eurovision-approaching-its-time-to-draw-attention-to-the-lack-of-human-rights-in-azerbaijan/- Azerbaijan's lack of media freedoms under fire