The Tough Task of Middle East Peace

February 27, 2013 Topic: Security Region: IsraelPalestinian territories

The Tough Task of Middle East Peace

The components of a successful American peace bid.

Secretary of State John Kerry is said to be urging President Obama to consider launching a new U.S. effort to end the paralysis that currently plagues Israeli-Palestinian relations. It is not clear whether the president supports this idea, but his scheduled trip to Israel in March also includes a stop in Ramallah. This has spurred speculation that Obama is not dismissive of the proposed U.S. reengagement in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. Indeed, recently this possibility seems to have led to visits to Washington by Benjamin Netanyahu’s envoy for talks with the Palestinians, Itzhak Molcho, and his Palestinian counterpart, Saeb Erekat.

While they should not be discouraged, the president and Secretary Kerry should ponder what a successful effort in this realm might require. Indeed, even the first steps in such a journey will breed huge expectations. And if they are not met because the task will prove too taxing, there will be great disappointment, resulting not only in another setback to U.S. standing in the Middle East but also the possibility of a new eruption of Arab-Israeli violence.

Assuming that the Obama administration decides that a breakthrough in Palestinian-Israeli relations is important not only for its own sake, but also for addressing other U.S. national interests in the Middle East, what would it take to achieve such a breakthrough? The long history of the efforts to resolve the Arab-Israel conflict—and particularly its Palestinian-Israeli dimension—yields at least eight different requirements for success:

Requirement 1: Examine the conditions. Previous breakthroughs in this realm required a prior dramatic development—what some call a game changer: The 1973 War led to the Egyptian-Israeli disengagement agreements and later to the Camp David Accords; the 1991 Gulf War led to Madrid and the Jordanian-Israeli peace treaty; and the First Palestinian Intifada led to Oslo.

In the absence of a a game changing event, it is difficult to see how it would be possible to overcome three negative dimensions of the current environment: first, the fragmentation of the Palestinian side between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza; second, the highly committed, energized and mobilized minority opposing such a breakthrough in Israel, including within Likud; and finally, the impact of the Arab Awakening on the extent to which neighboring Arab countries could be helpful, which is discussed further below.

Requirement 2: Secure time, energy and political capital. The expenditure of these scarce commodities by the president and the secretary will be required for at least three reasons: First, the Arab-Israeli conflict is very complicated and very resilient. For over sixty-five years it has eluded many efforts to resolve it. For the Obama administration to succeed where most previous administrations have failed will require a heroic effort. Second, the conflict is as much a part of the U.S. domestic agenda as it is part of its international relations. And third, Israeli and Arab leaders have been spoiled and expect the personal involvement of U.S. presidents (Carter, Clinton) or their secretaries of state (Kissinger, Baker, Christopher, Albright, Rice). As a result, they will not deal seriously with anyone of lesser rank.

Requirement 3: Empower the deputized. The other issues on Obama’s plate—from the economy through immigration reform and gun control—will limit the time and energy that he would be able to devote to breaking the current stalemate in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. Hence, if such a breakthrough is to be attempted, the president would need to deputize one of his most senior officials, most likely Kerry. If he were to do so, Obama must find ways of conveying to Israeli and Arab leaders that Kerry is speaking for him and that no distance between them can be exploited. Without Presidents Nixon, Ford and the first Bush having found ways to convey a similar message, Secretaries of State Kissinger and Baker would not have succeeded.

Requirement 4: Bring Congress on board. The president would need to make every effort to reduce the odds that Congress will take measures that may undermine the revamping of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. At the very least, he should make sure that his own party’s leaders in Congress are on board. This would require explaining to Congressional leaders what he would be attempting to achieve, his assessments of how this could be done and how it advances America’s other national interests in the region, while addressing their likely concerns about these efforts.

Requirement 5: Change the operative principle of negotiations. The principle upon which Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Palestinian negotiations from Camp David to Taba were based—nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon—should be dropped. It had a toxic effect because it meant that any progress achieved was held hostage to the most difficult issues. Instead, the opposite principle should be adopted: whatever is agreed upon should be implemented. This will allow Israelis and Palestinians to see progress on the ground. And however small that progress might be, it will be very significant given the present pessimism among Palestinians and Israelis alike.

Requirement 6: Recruit key Arab states. The support of key Arab states for any major attempt at a Palestinian-Israeli breakthrough will be essential. Some of the issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians cannot be resolved without the active support of these states. A number of them—notably Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Morocco—have a strong interest in Jerusalem. Similarly, the Palestinian refugee issue cannot be addressed without the participation of these and other Arab states.

Ideally, the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative should be revived and operationalized to provide incentives for Israelis and Palestinians to make the concessions that any agreement would require. But the odds of achieving this is slim given the present state of play in the region following the Arab Awakening, with most governments consumed by their domestic problems. It is particularly difficult to see how Egypt’s President Morsi, a Muslim Brother, would lend support to such an effort. At the very least, however, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan should be recruited.

Requirement 7: Garner domestic support. The parties to the agreement should cover not only the substantive issues that currently divide them but also the steps that each side can take to help the other build domestic support for whatever compromise is reached. This, together with steps that each can make to improve the environment during the run-up to the agreement, has been the subject of recent informal and unofficial exchanges between Israelis and Palestinians. The insights gained in these conversations should be given serious consideration.

Requirement 8: Engage the U.S. and Israeli defense communities. In Israel, an effort to move closer to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be supported by many members and former leaders of its military establishment. Some of these leaders have already expressed their deep concerns about the implications of the current stalemate. This key constituency should be engaged by their U.S. counterparts and colleagues, who should be deployed to explain that progress toward resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is important for addressing other challenges that Washington faces in the region. Even more importantly, they must engage their Israeli colleagues in serious discussions about the considerable risks entailed in territorial concessions that Israel will have to make for an agreement to be reached and how the two countries can cooperate in addressing them.

Breaking the current paralysis in the Arab-Israeli peace process will be very difficult. The conflict has proven very resilient and some of the region’s most impressive leaders—Sadat and Rabin—have already paid with their lives for progress in this realm.

Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking is not for the faint-hearted. The requirements for success in this realm are considerable and should be carefully assessed before any new effort is launched. Even the smallest first steps in an attempt to achieve a breakthrough are bound to produce huge expectations. Creating such hopes only to end in another disappointment would be more than merely a shame—it might hasten another eruption of major violence, similar to what happened in the aftermath of the mid-2000 Camp David summit.

Shai Feldman is the Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies and a Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The author wishes to thank Graham Allison for encouraging the writing of this piece.