Can America Prevent Saudi Arabia from Going Nuclear?
Ahead of his visit to the United States, Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) clarified in an interview that while his country does not want nuclear weapons, “without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.” Such a clear and public statement by the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia was obviously meant to grab attention. This is not exactly breaking news for anyone that has been following Saudi Arabia in recent years, but the reiteration of Saudi concern with Iran’s nuclear ambitions is significant for two reasons. First, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)—which Saudi Arabia has long believed is a flawed and will not stop Tehran from becoming a nuclear state—enables Iran to have an industrial nuclear program including uranium enrichment. Second, the statement reinforces the notion that Saudi Arabia’s demand to enrich uranium as part of a civilian nuclear deal with the United States is not detached from the kingdom’s desire to keep its options open in the military realm as well. In both regards, the factor that is driving Saudi Arabia's statements and stepped up nuclear plans is the implications of Iran’s nuclear program, and the deal that was concluded with Iran in 2015.
While some have suggested that the crown prince’s message highlights the importance of keeping the JCPOA in place as insurance that Iran will remain non-nuclear, the Saudi concern is quite the opposite: namely, that the nuclear deal in its current format has created a more aggressive Iran, and will not ensure that Iran remains non-nuclear. At the Munich Security conference in February, Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir could not have been clearer about how his country views the JCPOA, and Iran’s regional behavior:
We are letting [the Europeans] know that the nuclear agreement that was signed with Iran is lacking. The sunset provision has to be amended, and the inspections have to broadened to include non-declared and military sites. We also believe the nuclear agreement itself does not resolve the issue of Iran's radical behaviour which has to do with the ballistic missile resolutions of the United Nations, exporting ballistic missiles that are used to target civilians.
He went on to criticize Iran's support for terrorism, and the revolutionary guards who are causing "mischief" within the region and the world.
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The recent Saudi messages are directed at the Trump administration’s current efforts to garner European support to strengthen the JCPOA. This explains the foreign minister noting that Saudi Arabia's assessment of the deal and Iran's regional behavior has been relayed to the Europeans, who have so far not been forthcoming on improving the JCPOA. Riyadh is clear that if the JCPOA is not strengthened and Iran does goes nuclear, Saudi Arabia will be right behind Iran.
All of this comes on the heels of Saudi plans for a civilian nuclear program, including a demand to work on the fuel cycle—namely, uranium enrichment and reprocessing of plutonium. Discussions about Saudi Arabia’s desire to close deals for a civilian nuclear program have accelerated in recent weeks, and negotiations with the United States on the subject have been renewed. During the Obama administration, the president insisted on holding Saudi Arabia to the "gold standard" that it set for civilian nuclear cooperation, namely, that the state in question must renounce the right to work on the fuel cycle—due to the potential proliferation dangers.
The background to the question of a state's supposed right to work on the fuel cycle is set by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). According to one interpretation of Article IV, the NPT grants states the right not only to cooperate on developing a civilian nuclear program, but broadens that right to include independent production of fuel for its reactors (rather than buying the fuel on the open market). It became clear that this broad interpretation was not to be encouraged because uranium enrichment is dual-use technology—it can produce fuel for reactors, but if uranium is enriched to very high levels, the same centrifuges can produce the fissile material needed for a nuclear bomb. This was the rationale for creating the gold standard, and the first state in which it was implemented was the United Arab Emirates in 2009.