Exactly 500 Years Ago, This Battle Changed the Middle East Forever

“The Battle between Shah Ismail and Shaybani Khan” from the Tarikh-i alam-aray-i Shah Ismail. Wikimedia Commons/Public domain

Forget Sykes-Picot: the Battle of Marj Dabiq is what drew the modern map.

Five centuries ago, the contours of the modern Middle East were shaped through a series of Ottoman battles. The outcomes of these battles—which shaped the region’s politics, demographics and religious movements—were much more important in the long run than modern phenomena such as the Sykes-Picot Pact. This month marks the five hundredth anniversary of one of the most important of these battles, the Battle of Marj Dabiq, between the Ottoman Empire and the Mamluk Sultanate of Egypt, the Levant and the Hejaz.

Marj Dabiq means the “meadow of Dabiq,” and was fought next to the town in modern Syria where Islamic State believes Armageddon will occur, on the basis of a hadith (a saying attributed to Muhammad). Northwestern Syria is littered with countless battle sites, ancient and modern, as it is situated on the most traversable land route between Turkey and Europe, on the one hand, and the Levant, Egypt and Mesopotamia, on the other hand.

In the early sixteenth century the Ottoman Empire, having already conquered most of the Balkans, shifted its attention to the Middle East. The initial impetus for this was the influence of the rapidly expanding Safavid Persian Empire. The Safavid Empire originated in 1501 in what is today East Azerbaijan Province in northern Iran, and soon expanded to include much of Persia, Afghanistan and Iraq. It wielded enormous influence over many of the Turkish and Kurdish tribes of eastern Turkey, many of which were influenced by the Shia propaganda of the Safavids. In order to counter this enormously destabilizing influence on their eastern flank, the Ottomans moved to confront the Safavids directly. This led to the pivotal Battle of Chaldiran on August 23, 1514, which resulted in an Ottoman victory, aided by its superior artillery. Chaldiran cemented Ottoman rule over eastern Turkey and Mesopotamia and limited Safavid expansion mostly to Persia. This ultimately checked the expansion of Shia Islam and strengthened the association between Iranian national identity and Shia Islam. Sunni Islam, championed by the Ottomans, became permanently dominant throughout most of the rest of the region.

The Battle of Chaldiran soon led to the region’s other pivotal battle of the era. Having secured his empire’s eastern flank, the Ottoman Sultan Selim I could turn his attention to the southwest, where the Mamluk Sultanate was dominant. The Mamluk Sultanate had been the dominant power of the Islamic world for three centuries, ruling over a stable heartland in Egypt as well as over the holy cities of Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem, while much of the rest of the Islamic world was fractured and in a chaotic state of warfare in the aftermath of the Mongol invasions. The Mamluk Sultanate was founded in Egypt in 1250 by an oligarchical caste of Turkic and Circassian slave-soldiers, Mamluks, who seized power from the Ayyubid Dynasty of Saladin. Their claim to fame was stopping the Mongol advance at Ain Jalut in 1260. Furthermore, after the Mongol destruction of the Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad in 1258, a surviving member of the family escaped to Cairo, where he and his descendents set up a “shadow caliphate” under Mamluk control. However, by the early 1500s, the Mamluks had begun to slowly decline.

The Ottomans greatly feared the possibility of an alliance between the Mamluks and Safavids. After the Battle of Chaldiran, the Safavids and Mamluks concluded what seemed to amount to a defensive pact, wherein if the Ottomans invaded Persia again, the Mamluks would move north into Turkey from Syria. This led to the Ottoman-initiated invasion of the Mamluk Sultanate in 1516.

As the Ottoman invasion of Syria under Selim I commenced, the Mamluk Sultanate found itself ill prepared for the war. The Mamluk sultan, Qansuh al-Ghawri, had previously engaged in incompetent and confusing diplomacy, trying to support both the Ottomans and Safavids, and the army he sent north to Syria ravaged the city of Aleppo instead of protecting it, losing the support of the local population, though this had occurred before the sultan himself arrived. During the course of the subsequent battle at Marj Dabiq, the governor of Aleppo, Kha’ir Bey, betrayed his master by calling for a retreat from the left flank and by spreading rumors that Qansuh had been slain (he was rewarded with the governorship of Ottoman Egypt from 1517 to 1522).

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