Here's the Playbook for Getting U.S.-Russian Cooperation Back On Track
It was no coincidence that Vladimir Putin went from being an outlier at last year’s G-20 meeting to being the man to see at the recent G-20 conclave in Turkey. From the refugee crisis rippling through the EU to new waves of terrorism, from the outbreak of multilayered ethnic and religious conflict in Syria to the unraveling of the state system in the Middle East, Moscow’s activism places it at the epicenter of all these crises.
Yet this new status comes at a moment when the strategic and political gulf between Russia and the West is reminiscent of the Cold War. Against this backdrop, the old adage “don’t cut off your nose to spite your face” would seem to apply to U.S. and Western reluctance to work with Russia in battling ISIS and reducing chaos in the Middle East. If we want to see results, in this polycentric world, we may not have the freedom we once had to choose our partners.
None of the so-called “great powers,” including the U.S., is able to call the shots anymore, and there are competing visions of what kind of new world order should exist. The supreme irony is that the growing disorder in the international system comes at a time when the world is more economically interdependent than ever, and we all share a strong interest in combatting terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change and a host of other global challenges.
At root, the very success of globalization—connecting economies, people and nations—is creating wider gaps between the haves and have-nots. And these disparities will only get worse as the emerging technologies favor those at the core, not the periphery, of the world economy.
In parallel with (and perhaps in reaction to) globalization, a trend of nativism and inward-looking nationalism is sweeping across the world from Europe to the Middle East and Far East. The U.S. presidential election campaign is no exception, where Republican presidential candidates and state governors have been outdoing each other, for example, on how to keep out any Syrian refugees.
What’s the solution? Over the last year, the Moscow-based Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), and the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative have conducted a joint study of global trends without major disagreement on the analysis, especially on four action points:
Confront the Culture Crisis
The sources of instability are not just on the surface between nations, but are deeply rooted in cultures undergoing an immense unraveling. The future of the state and of multiculturalism is in doubt in increasing swathes of the Middle East, starting with four already-failing states: Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. International conflict, real and potential, which had hit historic lows in the past decade, has begun to creep back up due in part to growing bloodshed in the Middle East. The possibility of such conflict between major powers had appeared remote. But now, from the Ukrainian crisis to the South China Sea territorial disputes, it seems, if not probable, at least in the realm of the thinkable.
Just like at the end of the Cold War, we need to think about putting in place mechanisms for defusing potential crises. The recent Turkish downing of the Russian jet on the Syrian border should be a wake-up call of the potential for rapid escalation. Practically any part of the post-Soviet space and surrounding regions, as well as the western part of the Asia-Pacific region and northern part of the Indian Ocean, could become the site of serious competition between major powers. The increasing range and reduced response time of current and emerging non-nuclear offensive weapons systems and their highly automated command-and-control systems heighten the risks of accidents.
Expand the Circle
Both the West and Russia face critical strategic choices. For its long-term future, the U.S. can’t afford an outmoded worldview shaped by “exceptionalism.” It also can’t just be a Pacific power, even though economic power is shifting there. European policy can’t be just about securing its neighborhood. The EU is learning the hard way that the rest of the world does not share its postmodern vision and it is impossible to shield itself from the slings and arrows of external global turmoil. Nor can Russia be centered just on the former Soviet states, including forging an Eurasian condominium with China.
Inclusion in broader transatlantic and transpacific economic and security architectures will remain critically important for all three powers. And there is clearly a mutual interest among the major powers—U.S., Russia, EU, China, Japan—in developing peaceful solutions to the vicious cauldron of conflicts in the greater Middle East, the swath from North Africa to Pakistan.
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