Is this the Beginning of Modi’s End?
Recently held by-elections to India’s national parliament and several state assemblies may be pointers to the decline and final fall of India’s charismatic and pugnacious Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first signs of his declining popularity were evident last year when his party, the Hindu nationalist BJP, lost crucial by-elections in India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh (UP). These included the Lok Sabha (national parliament) seat vacated by Modi’s handpicked chief minister of UP, who was a rabidly anti-Muslim Hindu priest from the eastern part of the state. In addition, the BJP lost seats in the state legislatures of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, two other strongholds of the BJP.
Another example is last month's elections in the crucial south Indian state of Karnataka, which the BJP was expected to win because of the anti-incumbency wave against the ruling Indian Congress. The BJP improved its seat count but was unable to get a majority, providing the Congress the opportunity to return to power as a result of its post-poll alliance with a regional party. Moreover, although the Congress lost seats in these elections, it garnered thirty-eight percent of the popular vote to the BJP's thirty-seven percent and with its ally, JD(S), secured fifty-six percent of the votes. The Karnataka results were especially galling for Modi who had camped in the state for several days and addressed a record number of twenty-one campaign rallies. In doing so, he made the state election a test of his popularity—a test that he failed.
More important, in a series of by-elections were also held for vacant state assembly and Lok Sabha seats in late May. The BJP won only one seat, and that was also by defeating its ally the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Furthermore, out of the eleven seats, the Congress won five. Finally, the most critical loss for the BJP was the parliamentary seat of Kairana in western UP, which the BJP had made into a prestige contest. It was won convincingly by a Muslim woman running on the ticket of a party dominated by Jats, a landowning Hindu caste that until recently had been engaged in communal strife against Muslims.
The primary lesson from the latest round of elections is that Modi and the BJP are not invincible if the opposition parties come together in a grand alliance and turn most contests into two-way fights. Such a partnership is essential to defeating the BJP in the national elections scheduled for early 2019. This lesson was apparent even in the 2014 parliamentary election which brought the BJP to power—elections in which the BJP only won thirty-one percent of the national vote. In other words, the BJP had previously been able to win a majority of seats in a first-past-the-post system only because of the opposition's disunity.
The Congress, India's grand old party, will have to play the crucial role in forging any opposition unity in the run-up to the 2019 election because it has a national presence that other parties, which are primarily regional, lack. The Congress will also have to lower its sights and accommodate regional allies more generously than it has done the past. Moreover, it may have to give up its insistence that it has a right to lead a united opposition and that its leader must become the Prime Minister if such a grand alliance can defeat Modi's BJP. The opposition candidate for Prime Minister will have to be chosen by consensus among the parties which is likely to be difficult, but not impossible to achieve. At the same time the parties on the left, especially the Communist Marxist Party (CPM), will have to overcome their ideological distaste for the Congress and work in tandem with it.
The erosion of Modi’s popularity has many reasons. First, what was earlier considered his charisma is now seen as arrogance and bravado. His “bring them on” style that had made him popular when he was in opposition now appears to demean the office of the Prime Minister in the eyes of substantial portions of the electorate.
Second, Modi's promises regarding the economic betterment of the average Indian does not cut it anymore. The imposition of the Goods and Services Tax and the botched demonetization of the currency in 2016 have alienated significant elements of the population. Professional economists have heavily criticized the latter exercise as nothing more than "sound and fury" that left major sources of "black" money untouched. Furthermore, recent scandals regarding wealthy entrepreneurs fleeing from the country with their ill-gotten gains have pointed toward a nexus between the government and unethical businessmen. This has also hurt the government's image, especially since two of the leading absconders share their last name with the Prime Minister.