The North Korea Threat: America’s Limited Options
Over the past few months, North Korea has become increasingly assertive on both the international and domestic stage. The Hermit Kingdom conducted its fourth nuclear weapons test in January, successful launched a satellite that also functioned as a ballistic missile test in February, and convened the seventh Congress of its ruling Korean Workers’ Party (KWP)—the first such gathering since 1980—earlier this month.
To analyze these important developments, the Center for the National Interest on May 24 held a discussion with Georgetown University professor and former George W. Bush administration National Security Council official Victor Cha and Lt. General Wallace “Chip” Gregson, Jr., former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs (2009-2011) and Senior Director of the Center’s China and the Pacific Program. Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of the National Interest, moderated.
Throughout the focus was on the limited options that the U.S. and its allies possess in dealing with North Korea—and the perils that confront them. Cha addressed the dangers that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions represent in 2016 as well as over the next decade. In both cases, he holds a pessimistic view. Although a lull currently exists in Pyongyang’s nuclear-related activities following the Congress, Cha expects this to change by August when the United States and South Korea hold their annual joint military exercises. Moreover, given Pyongyang’s propensity for demonstrating its ability to flex its muscles around election time in the United States and South Korea, it is quite likely that it will pursue provocative behavior in November.
Aside from these near term considerations, Cha also discussed three structural factors undergirding his gloomy outlook. First, the DPRK nuclear weapons program is increasing in sophistication, and it is only a matter of time before it develops an ICBM reentry vehicle and smaller nuclear weapons capable of being placed on a warhead. Second, the North Korean regime is confronted with a “legitimacy spiral” in which the two sources of legitimacy it is pursuing—economic reform and nuclear weapons—are undermining each other.
As Pyongyang aggressively pursues nuclear weapons program, the international community levels sanctions that impair the country’s economic prospects. This, in turn, causes the regime to rely more on nuclear weapons as its primary source of legitimacy. Third, Cha argued that the United States policy community is underestimating the increasingly grave North Korean threat. The logic of the Obama administration’s “strategic patience” approach is one in which Washington does not overreact to DPRK provocations; yet, this policy is becoming outdated as Pyongyang demonstrates increasingly sophisticated and worrisome capabilities.
Cha also briefly discussed recent political and social trends inside the reclusive Stalinist state. He explained that the aim of this month’s KWP Congress was to firmly establish Kim Jung-un’s rule for the next half century. Yet, in lacking the stature of his grandfather and father, Kim Jung-un’s tenure will be measured much more by a performance metric than his predecessors. Moreover, as the youngest Kim oversees a more rigid political system and an economy characterized by the expansion of markets, a “tear” could emerge that is triggered, perhaps, by an effort to rein in the markets.
In looking to the future, Dr. Cha advanced five policy recommendations. First, China, as the current chair of the Six Party Talks, should call a Five Party Talks that excludes North Korea, which in any case has shown no recent desire to engage in dialogue. Second, sanctions should be made tighter, especially a ban on all forms of fuel exports to the DPRK. Third, President Obama’s executive order sanctioning third parties that do business with North Korean entities should be fully implemented. Fourth, China should regulate trade along the Sino-North Korean border to prevent Pyongyang from acquiring materials that aid its nuclear weapons program. Finally, the United States, South Korea, and China should jointly discuss various contingencies that may develop on the Peninsula. China in the past had been reluctant to engage in such discussions due to North Korean sensitives, but is less concerned now, Cha mentioned.
Lt. General Gregson’s remarks focused on the regional implications of North Korea’s activities as well as its impact on U.S. policy in Asia. He emphasized that North Korea has repeatedly defied conventional wisdom and U.S. intelligence estimates, and so should not be underestimated. For example, despite U.S. reassurances to Japan that Pyongyang did not possess a three-stage rocket, it surprised many with the launch of its Taepodong intermediate-range missile over the Japanese main islands in 1998. By extension, he argued that U.S. policymakers should not underestimate North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
What to do? Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy raised the question of whether—based, as he put it, “on the well-known strategic principle that a small crisis is better than a big crisis”—the U.S. should seek to use an anti-ballistic missile capability to shoot down North Korean “tests of longer range missiles.” In Gregson’s view, “that’s a really intriguing idea and appealing at some point. We can logically get there…and that might be a much better way to demonstrate deterrence.”