Washington's Creation: A Russia-China Alliance?
In the foreseeable future, Russia has plenty of space for maneuver in its relations with China. Russia’s next steps with regard to Beijing will largely depend on Washington’s readiness to impose tougher sanctions because of Ukraine. Russo-Chinese relations have great potential for development. We cannot exclude the possibility that Russia and China will enter into a military-political alliance that can shift the global balance of power. The military, technological, and resource potential of Russia propped up by the economic and colossal labor resources of China would allow the two countries to make decisions on many global issues in a way that would rattle the current balance of power in international relations.
Apparently, there is some sort of instinctive understanding of this in Washington, which is why the U.S. is not pushing Japan to adopt strict sanctions against Russia. Should Japan impose such sanctions, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would have to forget his ambition to solve the question of the “Northern territories” in his relations with Russia, as he might force Russia’s hand in supporting China’s claim over the contentious Senkaku islands.
A potential alliance of Russia and China can present many new and unexpected developments for both Washington and Brussels in economic and military-political relations.
Today, there are many politicians and analysts in Washington who, on the one hand, desperately thirst to punish Russia and China, and on the other, consciously or not, avoid calculating the consequences of their actions and remain blind to the real preconditions for a closer partnership between Russia and China on all leading global problems. A continued refusal to contemplate such a partnership could have profound consequences for the U.S. foreign policy.
Andranik Migranyan is the director of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation in New York, which works closely with the Russian Presidential administration.