When Trump Meets Xi: Prepare for the Opening Gambit
The first summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is the beginning of a process, punctuated by serious issues, separated by distinctly different negotiating styles. With these points in mind, the new American president can use the Mar-a-Lago meeting to set the tone and tenor of U.S.-China relations, kick start fairer trade, highlight some critical security priorities, and avoid falling prey to either the hubris that can afflict any summiteer or the traps set by Chinese tactics.
A Process, Not Decisive Single Moments
For all the buildup of this inaugural meeting, it is important to remember that diplomacy has more to do with managing relations over time than producing singular and monumental deals. The Mar-a-Lago summit represents the opening gambit—not the closing move—between Presidents Trump and Xi.
The U.S.-China informal encounter brings together the leaders of the most consequential of major-power relations in this decade and decades to come. But just because it is important does not mean it will lead to either a breakthrough or a breakdown in bilateral relations. A single summit seldom achieves the lofty altitude intimated by the word.
The very word summit lends itself to superlatives and hyperbole. Yet a lone meeting, especially an informal, get-acquainted gathering with little time for preparation or prenegotiated accords.
During the Cold War, U.S.-Soviet summit meetings captured worldwide attention because they brought together two men with the ability to initiate a world-ending nuclear exchange. Yet for all the fear and hype, the entire series of summit meetings that took place over more than three decades created more modest, if nontrivial, achievements of détente and a nuclear arms-control regime.
The key question is not what a single, loosely choreographed summit produces, but what it eventually leads to with respect to economic and security outcomes, as well as the general impact on regional and global order. And between trepidation about the impact of U.S.-China relations on the world economy and the end of Washington’s strategic patience over North Korean nuclear and missile proliferation, even the immediate issues to be discussed by the two leaders are substantial.
Weighty Economic and Security Issues
For an unscripted summit, this week’s meeting at President Trump’s southern White House is not lacking for urgent issues to be addressed in both the economic and military realms. North Korea’s breakneck pursuit to become a permanent nuclear-weapon state is preempting what logically would have been primarily an economic and trade summit.
But another Mar-a-Lago summit, another North Korean crisis. It was only February when Trump’s golf-diplomacy bonding with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was interrupted by North Korean missile launches. This time, Pyongyang did not wait until the summit to test launch another medium-range ballistic missile, and a sixth nuclear test could be imminent. Trump and Xi represent nuclear powers, but their own national nuclear prowess is being challenged by an illicit nuclear upstart hoping to provoke surrounding powers into acquiescing to its weapons of mass destruction.
Meanwhile, Trump has sent a clear signal to Pyongyang and Beijing that something more must be done to rein in North Korea’s reckless behavior, which could trigger a major regional war. A still-classified North Korea policy review reportedly focuses on tightening comprehensive pressure on Pyongyang rather than hastily launching a preemptive strike. While everything is said to remain on the table, preventive action only makes sense in the extreme scenario that Kim Jong-un were about to launch a missile with an intent to kill.
Comprehensive pressure makes sense, especially with respect to squeezing the Kim family’s illicit economy and North Koreans’ doubts about their country’s future. Pressure may not force North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons, but it could produce arms control or pave the way to eventual change from within. In the meantime, the United States and its allies can augment their armed forces and expand their economic growth, reducing North Korea’s weapons to paper tigers through sustained deterrence and leaving North Korea’s economy further behind G-20 economies.
Not only does the North Korean threat help unite China and the United States (unlike maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas), but it also could be an added incentive to signal some trade and investment deals that would help both Trump and Xi address their vital domestic economic goals. Fairer trade will take more time, but announcing now an intention to invest in American jobs could be a winning move for Beijing.