If the United States cannot get its fiscal house in order, the dollar’s privileged position as the world’s reserve currency may be at risk—at a time when there seem to be few if any plausible alternatives.
An intense security competition is under way in East Asia. Beijing and Washington must take care to ensure that this competition does not give way to entrenched bloody-mindedness or even outright violence.
The European debt debacle has made a mockery of the original hopes that inspired the European project. The EU may not survive the current crisis—and even if it does, it could be a severely diminished organization.
Mexico’s drug violence is spreading into Central American countries that lack the resources to cope with such dire challenges. The region is in danger of reverting back to turmoil.
Without economic recovery there is no political consensus; without political consensus there is no economic recovery. If Washington fails to overcome its current stalemate, a long period of monetary stagnation and moral decline will set in.
Europe’s problems go far beyond deflating currency and rising debt. It suffers from a lack of will, a crisis of confidence—and a serious identity problem. The once-great superpower has already fallen. Centuries of predominance slip away.
China must choose between kowtowing to domestic nationalism and submitting to a peaceful rise. Lately, nationalist belligerence has ruled the day. Washington is overreacting, encircling China. A latent rivalry ratchets up to dangerous levels.
A stark contrast exists between the tyrannical rulers of the Middle East and the benign despots of East Asia. The precepts of Enlightenment thought dictate freedom for all, but Confucian leaders offer a heretical alternative to Western ideals.
At its core, ideology fuels the epic struggle between Washington and Beijing. Deeply insecure about its own legitimacy, the Communist Party seeks the subordination of its regional neighbors to appease the nationalist wing of its body politic.
Will China seek revenge for its century of humiliation at the hands of the West?
