Irrespective of who will take the Oval Office in the upcoming U.S. Presidential elections, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Assad, and the SDF will continue to be the most significant issues between Turkey and the United States in the Middle East. Significant disputes regarding Gaza and the SDF will continue to recur for another four years under the Biden administration. In this case, an overall cold approach to Turkey in the region can be expected, narrowing the pathways for Turkish mediation in the war. 

A potential Trump victory in the November elections may have only a minor impact on relations. Despite Trump's harsh criticism of the Netanyahu government, the United States is likely to continue its historical support for Israel under Trump as well. As a result, disagreements between the United States and Turkey over this issue will likely continue. However, the Trump administration's occasional isolationist tendencies may lead to a desire to end the armed conflict sooner, even if this is not entirely beneficial to Israel. 

Given the previously proposed Trump Peace Deal, the agreement will also be far from perfect for Palestinians. As a result, Trump may be more inclined to absolve the United States of the responsibility for coordinating the Gaza conflict by reaching a regional agreement with mediatory powers like Turkey. Given the precedent, Trump is more likely to reach a compromise on Turkey's fight against the SDF, too. Nonetheless, the potential compromises and middle grounds do not mean anything yet. Given the overall unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, relations between the United States and Turkey will likely display a certain level of instability throughout the region if Trump wins the elections. 

It is easy to conclude that over the past years, as Turkey-U.S. relations deteriorated, Turkey's relations with Russia were improving and strengthening. However, the reality is more complex and involves a detailed engineering of managing the rivalry between Turkey and Russia at a regional level and an alignment on strategic issues between Turkey, the United States, and NATO. Turkey is increasingly keen on diversifying its relationships, especially economically, to support the state's fragile finances while remaining firmly within a security architecture from which it plays a central role and can benefit. The scenarios that could unfold with a change of presidency in the United States would bring new challenges to the relations between the two countries with two potential outcomes. On the one hand, if the United States continues on a path of reduced commitment to defending Western allies, this could give rise to new forms of cooperation and the emergence of an enhanced security architecture between Europe and Turkey.

On the other hand, Turkey might look at a new Trump Presidency positively as it can increase cooperation at the leadership level, making it easier to to address some of the long-standing issues with Trump. Particularly in Middle Eastern affairs, Turkey could find common ground more easily with the Trump administration. Regarding NATO or Russia-related issues, the Biden administration might be more effective in working with them. The level of cooperation will be determined depending on the administration's priorities in foreign policy. Whether pragmatism will win over dependency is yet to be seen.

Ali Mammadov is a graduate of Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, and currently serves as a Teaching Assistant at SAIS. His work focuses on Turkey, the Middle East, and middle-power politics. His articles have been published in different publications, including Atlantic Council and The National Interest. Follow him on X: @alimammadoov.

Riccardo Gasco is a PhD Researcher in Political and Social Sciences at the University of Bologna and a Visiting Research Fellow at Sabanci University. His work focuses on Turkish Foreign Policy at the crossroads between NATO and Russia. Follow him on X: @RiccardoGasco.

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