Power Failure: American Policy in the Caspian
Mini Teaser: Whereas in Central Europe Washington barely acknowledges Russian sensibilities, in Central Asia and the Caucasus it indulges them to excess.
Current U.S. policy has been calculated entirely in terms of possible
benefits, without reference to costs. But there are costs aplenty.
U.S. policy has driven a wedge between the United States and all the
other advanced industrial nations, which not only recognize Iran but
carry out substantial trade with it. Fully 60 percent of Iran's oil
production still goes to Europe. The policy has isolated the United
States from other countries as well. When Washington tried to prevent
Russia from selling nuclear equipment to Iran, only Israel and
Uzbekistan voted with the American representative at the United
Nations. It is curious that even Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states,
which have as much to lose as anyone from an aggressive Iran, have
opened embassies there. They realize that the Gulf War strengthened
Iran's position in the region, even if it may be imploding.
Meanwhile, even in its recently invigorated form, the policy is not
working. When the United States issued its ban on the sale of arms
Iran simply contracted with China for $4.6 billion in military
hardware. It is true that containment has taken a toll on the Iranian
economy and has reduced the purchase of arms to a lower level than
might otherwise have been the case. But does this accomplish anything