Biden earned a ten-point lead over the president, as he garnered 52% of support among likely voters in Arizona, with Trump trailing behind at 42%, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights released Monday morning. Five percent still remain undecided.
Trump’s reelection bid in Arizona is underwater as he will visit the state Monday for his fifth visit of the year. He is traveling there again since the state has shown growing support for the former vice-president, even though it hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1996.
Compared to the election results in 2016 in Arizona, Biden’s support somewhat mirrors Hillary Clinton’s backing from key groups that tend to favor the Democratic party. According to the latest Arizona poll, Biden has 59% of support among Hispanic or Latino voters, while Clinton rallied 61% of support from the same group four years ago, exit polls reported.
Clinton also won female voter support by nine points over Trump in Arizona, while Biden has a twelve-point lead over the president, 53%-41%, according to the OH Predictive Insights poll.
Another voting surprise from the latest poll is that the former vice-president holds a seven-point advantage over Trump among Arizona likely voters who are men. Four years ago, Trump dominated the male support in the state, 53%-45%.
Biden’s lead in the latest poll also reveals overwhelming support among independents, as he leads by twenty-one-points. Among independent likely voters in Arizona, 56% back Biden, while 35% support Trump.
“If you’re losing independents by 20 points and you have a leakage problem in your base, you simply have a numbers problem when it comes to 50 percent plus one,” OH Predictive Insights pollster Mike Noble told The Arizona Republic.
OH Predictive Insights has been tracking the Trump-Biden race since February 2019, marking September as the first month Biden rallied a high ten-point advantage. In August, the former Democratic nominee only had a 4% lead, compared to just a 5% lead in July.
The poll also revealed data on Trump’s job approval, as 46% said they at least somewhat approve of the president’s work, while 52% said they at least somewhat disapprove.
When asked whether surveyors had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the president, 46% indicated that they have a somewhat or very favorable impression, and 52% said they have an unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of the president. Respondents were also questioned about Biden’s impression, with 53% saying they had a somewhat favorable or very favorable view of the former vice-president and 43% saying they had an unfavorable or very unfavorable one.
The statewide OH Predictive Insights poll was conducted from Sept. 8-10 and surveyed 600 likely voters in Arizona, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.