Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: A Backgrounder
Former president Bashar al-Assad is perhaps best known for waging crimes against humanity on his population, including the use of chemical weapons, on multiple occasions since the Syrian civil war erupted back in 2011.
The Assad regime was also heavily backed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia during its tenure. While the weakened states of both Tehran and Moscow amidst the Ukraine invasion and Israel wars is a net positive for the region, the incoming governing body in Syria raises red flags.
The Evolution from Terror to Moderacy
The lightning assault on Damascus, spearheaded by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), was formerly an Al-Qaeda affiliate. Aby Mohammad al-Jolani is the leader of the U.S. designated terror group and is expected to wield power as a new governing body in Syria forms. Just a few days before the fall of the Assad regime, al-Jolani told CNN in an interview “When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this [Assad] regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal.”
Jolani has attempted to transform when it comes to public perception of his previous Islamist roots. No longer wearing the traditional turban normally associated with Islamist leaders, Jolani sported khaki clothing in his most recent appearances.
What is at Stake for Minority Groups and Dissidents in Syria
Jolani and HTS severed ties with Al-Qaeda back in 2016 and have since tried to come off as a more moderate group. The militant leader summed up his transformation in the CNN interview, stating that “A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties, and certainly someone in their fifties. This is human nature.”
While Jolani may preach that he and his organization are less extreme than their previous affiliates, human rights groups are still concerned with what an HTS in power could mean for minorities and political dissidents. Recently, the group reportedly carried out brutal crackdowns on protests and even abused and tortured dissidents. Human Rights Watch documented reports of this abuse back in 2018 when residents came under the control of HTS in Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo.
Despite these reports, Jolani has addressed the Christian minority in Syria at the collapse of the Assad regime, promising protection under his control. Jolani’s expressed intentions should be considered with bated breath considering his past terror ties.
However, Iran and Russia’s inability to defend the Assad regime over the last two weeks marks a major milestone in the region and the world. Syria once represented a central pillar of Tehran’s proxy hold on the Middle East and the exile of Assad certainly fractures the regime’s ambitions. This, at least, should be celebrated.
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.
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