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North Korea and America’s Second Summit: We Asked 76 Experts to Predict the Results

February 6, 2019 Topic: Security Region: Asia Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: Trump-Kim SummitNorth KoreaSouth KoreaDonald TrumpKim Jong-un

North Korea and America’s Second Summit: We Asked 76 Experts to Predict the Results

The world’s leading experts gave us their opinion on how Kim-Trump 2.0 will play out.

Editor’s Note: The following is a note from the Center for the National Interest’s new Korea Studies Director and Executive Editor of the National Interest, Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula).

For a second time, the world’s collective gaze will once again turn to the Korean Peninsula as North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un will once again meet U.S. President Donald Trump for another historic summit.

But how will this next meeting playout? Could a comprehensive deal be struck, changing the trajectory of U.S.-DPRK relations once and for all away from confrontation and threats of nuclear war? Is a smaller or interim deal where both sides embrace an action-for-action formula a more likely result, say trading the Yongbyon nuclear facility for sanctions relief? Or, is all this simply a waste of time and we are destined to return to the days of “fire and fury”?

To answer these important questions, the National Interest in partnership with the Center for the National Interest’s new Korea Studies Program proudly presents over seventy-six expert opinions to answer the following questions:

“With Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meeting for a second summit at the end of February, what do you feel will be the end result? Will both sides find a mutually acceptable framework that allows for the denuclearization of North Korea? Is a peace declaration that finally ends the Korean War possible? Will Washington offer some sort of “corresponding measures”? Or, is this summit the beginning of the end of what is only a short-term détente, with a time of tension soon to follow?

Below you will find a multitude of different perspectives from around the globe. Please note that these responses were collected over roughly one week with a filing date of Tuesday, February 5, 2019. We have done our best to ensure all content is timely and up to date.

Graham Allison , Charles Armstrong , Frank Aum

Myong-bok Bae , Jieun Baek , Doug Bandow , Bruce Bennett , Ian Bremmer , Tom Byrne

Ted Carpenter , Gordon Chang , Joe Cirincione , Michael Cohen , Lindsay Cohn , Ralph Cossa , Patrick Cronin

Danny Davis , Malcolm Davis , Robert de Neufville , Dan DePetris , Joseph DeTrani

Ashley Feng , Henri Feron Ruediger Frank

Robert Gallucci , Ken Gause , Lyle Goldstein , Michael Green , Wallace Gregson , John Dale Grover

Stephan Haggard , John Hemmings , Richard Heydarian , Christopher Hill , James Holmes , Jihwan Hwang

Jia Qingguo

Harry Kazianis , Robert Kelly , Catherine Killough , Soo Kim , Sung-han Kim , Robert King , Timo Kivimaki , Bruce Klingner

Christopher Lawrence , Cynthia Lazaroff , Jung-Hoon Lee , Sung-Yoon Lee

Narushige Michishita

Vipin Narang , Thomas Nichols , Stephen Noerper , Joseph Nye

Michael O'Hanlon , Miyeon Oh , Amanda Mortwedt Oh

Jung Pak , Ankit Panda

Evans Revere , Bill Richardson , Denny Roy , William Ruger

David Santoro , Tim Shorrock , Joshua Stanton , Chris Steinitz , Devin Stewart

Sue Mi Terry , Stein Tønnesson , Jenny Town

John S. Van Oudenaren

Hugh White

Andrew Yeo , Philip Yun

Zhu Feng