Poland Could Have More Tanks Than Russia Soon
Seeing that Russia may not stop at Ukraine, Warsaw has begun to ramp up its military spending.
The balance of power is shifting in Europe, and NATO member Poland is on track to surpass Russia in terms of having more tanks and armored vehicles. Two factors are at play—both tied to the war in Ukraine. Moscow has seen its military losses reach levels no one could have expected three years ago, just before it launched its unprovoked and ill-fated invasion (“special military operation”). At the same time, and in part because of the Kremlin’s actions, Warsaw has also engaged in a colossal military spending binge.
“It has been centuries since Poland was last a great armed power, but the winged hussars are back,” The Economist explained earlier this month. “When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Poland’s armed forces were the ninth-biggest in NATO. Today they are third after America and Turkey, having doubled in manpower to over 200,000. The budget has tripled in real terms to $35bn; in Europe, only Britain, France and Germany spend more.”
Warsaw Fears Moscow—For Good Reason!
Poland and Russia have what can only be described as a long and complicated relationship, and the bad blood between them goes back centuries. It was Poland that was the aggressor into Russian lands during the late Middle Ages, but the tables turned, and by the end of the 18th century, Poland was conquered and partitioned by the great powers of Prussia, the Habsburg monarchy of Austria, and the Russian Empire.
Warsaw and much of what is modern Poland were under Moscow’s thumb for more than a century, until the nation was restored after the First World War. But even then, Poland was forced to fight for its very survival after it was invaded by the Bolshevik Red Army during the Russian Civil War. Poland defeated the invaders during the 1920 Battle of Warsaw, sometimes known today as the “Miracle on the Vistula.”
Less than twenty years later, Poland was invaded again by the Red Army at the outset of World War II and partitioned between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. When the Polish underground rebelled against Hitler in the 1944 Warsaw Uprising, the Soviet Union—which had called for the uprising—betrayed the Poles, waiting for the Nazis to crush the resistance before “liberating” the city and conveniently ensuring no resistance to their own takeover.
Moscow’s effective control of Poland throughout the Cold War left a deep and lingering distrust of the Kremlin. Russia has done little to stem this. In 2020, a statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin put the blame for World War II on Poland!
The Tables Have Turned Again
Seeing that Russia may not stop at Ukraine, Warsaw has begun to ramp up its military spending. That has included adopting the American-made M1 Abrams and South Korean K2 Black Panther main battle tanks (MBT), along with other military hardware.
It was just this month that the Polish Army accepted delivery of the first tranche of M1A2 Abrams, which the U.S. had approved as part of the foreign military sales (FMS) program. In addition to the MBTs, Poland is set to receive 26 M88A2 Hercules Combat Recovery vehicles, 17 M1110 joint assault bridges, 250 counter IED systems, 276 M2 .50 caliber machine guns, and assorted other small arms and ordnance – as well as other equipment, spares, training, and logistics personnel services.
Poland will continue to receive the U.S. and South Korean MBTs and other vehicles throughout this year and likely beyond, but Warsaw’s dependence on Washington and Seoul could diminish as Poland and South Korea have agreed to a deal that will see the Eastern European nation produce the K2 under license.
Russia on the Decline
As Poland’s military increases, Russia’s armed forces continue to be diminished on the battlefield in Ukraine. According to a report from the UK Defence Journal on Sunday, the Kremlin’s total losses of tanks could be nearly 10,000, based on data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While those numbers are undoubtedly on the high end of estimates, Western analysts still believe Russia has lost thousands of tanks—including its stockpiles from the Cold War. Those antiquated tanks bolstered the Kremlin’s numbers, but were largely ineffective on the modern battlefield.
Romanian war correspondent Radu Hossu offered a harsh assessment of the situation, telling the Obiectiv EuroAtlantic podcast, “If this war continues throughout 2025 with the same intensity of Russian attacks, at the end of the year Russia will be able to be called a regional power at most from the point of view of the conventional army!”
Hossu further suggested, “If Ukraine defends itself as it has so far and the intensity of Russian attacks remains the same, by the end of 2025 Russia will have fewer tanks, howitzers and launchers in its warehouses and operational arsenal than Poland. We are talking conventionally, we are eliminating the nuclear part because we are not discussing this. The Russian army will become a small army, in a country the size of a continent.”
Even as the tables have turned, it is almost certain that Poland—as a modern and respected democracy—would not seek to invade Russia, even to reclaim the exclave of Kaliningrad. This may serve as a reminder that even in the 21st century, the greatest threat to democracy is from despots who seek to expand their influence. But this time, if Russia were to seek to expand westward, it would face serious resistance from Poland.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
