According to media summaries of a recent report issued by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could preface an invasion with joint war games involving its navy, army, and air force. “It will then send various kinds of its warships to the Western Pacific Ocean as a means to repel any foreign forces coming to Taiwan’s aid, and to impose strategic encirclement to discourage foreign forces from coming to help,” the Defense Ministry states.

The PLA would then commence a full-scale offensive including precision missile strikes against critical communications infrastructure and electronic countermeasures intended to disrupt key Taiwanese military facilities. Having crippled Taiwan’s ability to mount effective resistance, the Chinese military would proceed with an amphibious landing. According to the report, Beijing’s goal at this stage would be to occupy the island as quickly as possible, dampening the chances of foreign interference.

The Defense Ministry is urging Taiwanese lawmakers to support the government’s ​​$8.69 billion program to procure a slew of new weapons, including advanced cruise missiles and a stealth warship. “Taiwan must build as strong a deterrent as possible and as quickly as possible. Taiwan needs truly asymmetric capability, and a strong reserve force. Asymmetry means systems which are mobile, survivable and lethal,” said Ingrid Larson, managing director of the Washington office of the American Institute in Taiwan and one of Washington’s unofficial representatives in Taipei.

According to the South China Morning Post, the report is premised on the Defense Ministry’s assessment that Beijing intends to attack Taiwan by 2025. Nevertheless, Taipei says a full-scale invasion would be technically difficult to execute and would expose Beijing to distinct disadvantages. “The nation's military strongly defends ports and airports, and they will not be easy to occupy in a short time. Landing operations will face extremely high risks,” said the Defense Ministry.

Confined to the Taiwan Strait, the PLA’s occupying forces would face significant logistical constraints. “The nation's military has the advantage of the Taiwan Strait being a natural moat and can use joint intercept operations, cutting off the Communist military's supplies, severely reducing the combat effectiveness and endurance of the landing forces.”

“U.S. and Japanese military bases are close to Taiwan, and any Chinese Communist attack would necessarily be closely monitored, plus it would need to reserve forces to prevent foreign military intervention," added the ministry. Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe warned during a Taiwan-U.S.-Japan security conference earlier this week that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic for Beijing. “An adventure in military affairs, if pursued by such a huge economy like China’s, could be suicidal to say the least,” he said. “We must urge them not to pursue territorial expansion and restrain from provoking, often bullying, their neighbours because it would harm their own interests.”

Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.