Ukraine Is Running Out of Time for a Counterattack
Absent an offensive victory, things don’t look very bright for Kyiv.
As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fourth year, the Kremlin’s approach to the conflict has become increasingly clear: it is pursuing a piecemeal attritional strategy with the aim of capturing as much Ukrainian territory as possible.
Consequently, the Russian military has been throwing hundreds of thousands of men and tens of thousands of heavy weapon systems against the Ukrainian defenses in several parts of the contact line. As a result, Russian forces have been making slow but steady progress.
But the Ukrainians haven’t been sitting idle. On the contrary, the Ukrainian military maintains tactical, operational, and strategic pressure on the Russian forces all along the line of battle.
Strategic and Tactical Strikes
“Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest estimate of the conflict.
The Ukrainian military and intelligence services have landed some impressive hits against military targets inside Russia. Kyiv mainly targets ammunition depots, air bases, and the military industry.
Besides the psychological effect, these attacks have military consequences. For example, a few months ago, Ukrainian drones struck a series of ammunition depots inside Russia. The concomitant explosions were so powerful that small earthquakes ensued.
The Russian military is already having issues with fielding sufficient modern weapon systems on the frontlines. Many of Russia’s main battle tanks, artillery pieces, armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles doing the fighting are obsolete. Any strategic strikes against the Russian military’s ability to wage effective warfighting buys Ukraine more time.
But the Ukrainian military is also taking operational action. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that its forces struck several Russian command and control posts behind the lines. The goal of these strikes is to degrade the Russian military’s ability to fight.
“ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian strikes against main command posts further in the Russian rear are likely aimed at degrading broader Russian logistics and operational planning efforts, which could impact Russia’s ability to conduct its military operations in western Donetsk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
The Ukrainian military is also trying to shape the operational course of the war through its foray into Russian territory. Since early August, Ukrainian forces have remained in control of a small salient inside Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin has dedicated more than 50,000 men, who could have been fighting in Ukraine, in eradicating the salient. However, despite Russian and North Korean attacks, the Ukrainian forces remain in control of the area, which includes dozens of settlements.
Overall, the Ukrainian military maintains a defensive posture across the contact line, with the exception of the salient in Kursk. However, to win this war, the Ukrainian forces will need to go on to the offensive once more. And this time around, Kyiv will need to ensure that it is ready to break through the Russian defenses and achieve an operational breakthrough. Absent that, things don’t look very bright for Ukraine.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
.jpg){kind=link}