Russian submarines are getting more aggressive in the Atlantic Ocean. Deploying in greater numbers as far as the U.S. East Coast, Russian attack submarines could threaten U.S. military shipping hurrying to reinforce Europe in the event of war.

In response, the U.S. fleet in March 2020 is doing something it hasn’t done in decades. Practicing to protect convoys.

“The Navy is exercising a contested cross-Atlantic convoy operation for the first time since the end of the Cold War, using a carrier strike group to pave the way for sealift ships with a cruiser escort to bring the Army ground equipment for the Defender-20 exercise,” USNI News reported.

This convoy operation is allowing U.S. 2nd Fleet, Naval Forces Europe and Military Sealift Command to work command and control on both sides of the Atlantic to deliver gear by sea – replicating the massive sealift efforts that took place to support the European theater in World War II, and what would have to happen again if the U.S. were to support a major conflict in Europe in the future.

A recent Russian undersea surge underscored the threat submarines could pose to American shipping. The Russian navy in mid-October 2019 sortied eight subs in the country’s biggest undersea exercise since the Cold War.

The eight submarines, including six nuclear-powered ships, sailed from their bases in northern Russia into the cold waters of the Barents and Norwegian Seas. At the same time, an additional two boats -- the nuclear-powered Sierra-class attack submarines Pskov and Nizhny Novgorod -- sailed into roughly the same waters for tests and training.

The 10 vessels represent around 20 percent of the Russian submarine force. For comparison, the U.S. Pacific Fleet with its roughly 30 subs as recently as 2013 reliably could deploy eight boats on short notice.

The nuclear-powered supercarrier USS Eisenhower is leading the current convoy exercise. “The Ike, along with an unidentified submarine sweeping the depths of the ocean for unexpected Russian guests, is participating in an exercise that will throw simulated attacks at the convoy to stress test how prepared the Navy is to punch its way across the Atlantic,” Breaking Defense explained.

The path is being cleared for the roll-on/roll-off USNS Benavidez, along with U.S.-flagged merchant vessels M/V Resolve and M/V Patriot, which departed Beaumont, Texas Feb. 24 to deliver equipment to the U.S. Army’s Defender-20 exercise in Europe.

The ships are carrying gear for the 1st Armored Division, including Abrams tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles and other heavy armor.

The Pentagon in recent years has begun to worry about its ability to resupply far-flung forces during a major conflict. In September 2019, Military Sealift Command conducted a “stress test,”  activating 33 sealift ships on both U.S. coasts.

As part of the exercise, the five East Coast roll-on/roll-off cargo ships simulated an unescorted convoy moving through waters where enemy submarines and sea mines posed a threat.

That training belied a serious shortage of surface warships that could function as escorts. In October 2018, U.S. Maritime Administration head Mark Buzby said the Navy admitted it wouldn’t always be able to escort sealift ships during a war with Russia or China.

The good news for the Americans is that the Russian fleet can’t possibly keep up its current high rate of submarine deployments. By the late 2020s or early 2030s, the Russian navy could lose all but 12 of its existing subs as the vessels reactors wear out.

If Moscow succeeds in producing all the new Borei- and Yasen-class boats it plans to acquire, the future submarine fleet could top out at just 28 boats. Half its current strength.

“Eventually a much smaller number of modern, more capable boats will carry the burden of fulfilling [Russian president Vladimir] Putin’s grand plans of Russia remaining a maritime superpower capable of aspiring to a global presence under the sea,” naval historian Iain Ballantyne told The National Interest.

The U.S. Navy has the same problem, of course. In December 2016 the Navy announced it needed 66 attack and cruise-missile submarines in order to meet regional commanders' needs. But in early 2020 the fleet had just 56 attack and cruise-missile boats plus 14 ballistic-missile boats. That number is projected to fall by several per year through the late 2020s.

David Axe serves as Defense Editor of the National Interest. He is the author of the graphic novels  War Fix, War Is Boring and Machete Squad.

Photo Credit: PACIFIC OCEAN (May 20, 2012) An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 15 flies past the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) during an air power demonstration for embarked tiger cruise participants. Carl Vinson and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17 are underway on a tiger cruise after completing a deployment to the U.S. 5th and 7th Fleet areas of operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class James R. Evans/Released)