The new coronavirus variant that originated in the United Kingdom is spreading rapidly across the United States, with confirmed cases now doubling about every ten days, according to a new study conducted by a large group of scientists led by the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California.

The research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed but was published on the medical site MedRxiv, further revealed that the mutant virus strain, also known as B.1.1.7, first entered the country via international travel as early as November.

In response, the World Health Organization has called on neighboring countries to intensify coronavirus measures as the region deals with a new and more contagious variant that was first detected in southeast England in September 2020. 

That mutant virus quickly spread to London and is now responsible for the majority of new infections in the country, putting even more pressure on the health-care system that already has been pushed to the brink. Currently, about thirty thousand patients are receiving care in hospitals, compared to roughly eighteen thousand during the pandemic’s first peak in April.

The research team’s data culled from half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes are seemingly consistent with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s earlier prediction that the variant could become the dominant strain in the United States by late March, potentially causing another wave of infections and related deaths.

It has been estimated that this particular variant is approximately 30 percent to 40 percent more contagious than common variants, finding that its prevalence among positive cases shifted from less than one-half of 1 percent of all cases last month to 3.6 percent by the end of January.

In particular, the researchers saw “relatively robust” case estimates in California and Florida, indicating that the mutant strain was doubling about every 12.2 days in California, 9.1 days in Florida, and 9.8 days nationally. 

Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” the variant “will likely have devastating consequences to COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the U.S. in a few months,” the researchers wrote in the study, which was funded in part by the CDC, National Institutes of Health, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

The study’s authors also warned that their findings “reinforce the need” for increased surveillance of other new coronavirus variants.  

“Because laboratories in the U.S. are only sequencing a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true sequence diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in this country is still unknown. The more established surveillance programs in other countries have provided important warnings about variants of concern that can impact the U.S., with B.1.1.7 representing only one variant that demonstrates the capacity for exponential growth,” they wrote.  

“Only with consistent, unbiased sequencing at scale that includes all geographic and demographic populations including those often underrepresented, together with continued international scientific collaborations and open data sharing, will we be able to accurately assess and follow new variants that emerge during the COVID-19 pandemic.”  

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.  

Image: Reuters