A crisis appears to be brewing in North Korea. The price of basic commodities and food has spiked sharply resulting in shortages. Cross-border trade with China plummeted by 90 percent between April and May as North Korea’s borders remained mostly shut due to coronavirus fears.  Meanwhile, vaccine supplies have yet to arrive in any significant quantity. Between economic sanctions and the pandemic, North Korea is more isolated than ever from the international community. Despite North Korea’s precarious position, however, the regime remains relatively stable for three reasons.

First, Kim Jong-un’s authority remains intact as evidenced by his recent appearance and statements at the June Party Plenum. Although Kim acknowledged food shortages and the prolonged toll of the pandemic on North Koreans, state media appeared to convey a regime in control. Somewhat paradoxically, Kim has managed to assert greater authority over North Korea’s economy and society since the pandemic. Coupled with the state’s repressive surveillance apparatus, North Koreans are also highly unlikely to mobilize against the regime under pandemic restrictions.

Second, in contrast to the era of the great famine of the 1990s, the North Korean people have learned to adapt to adverse economic conditions over the years by relying on informal markets. North Koreans are surely suffering at present, but they may be better prepared to cope with disaster through the market system.

Finally, North Korea still controls the timing and pace of diplomatic engagement or lack thereof. South Korean president Moon Jae-in has been unequivocal in his desire to restart the inter-Korea dialogue with North Korea. Likewise, the Biden administration has stated that it is prepared to meet North Korea “anytime, anywhere without preconditions.” However, the regime has thus far rejected U.S. and South Korean overtures for diplomatic engagement, including offers for vaccine support. Although Pyongyang has not completely shut the door on diplomacy, for now, Party officials remain hunkered down as they shore up its domestic legitimacy and plot its next move.

If the past is any indicator, then the North Korean state and its people are extremely resilient to adversity. North Koreans recognize that their current plight remains outside of the regime’s control. Kim’s visibility and perceived leadership during this period of admitted hardship may even strengthen his rule, even if the regime’s recent measure cracking down on foreign media and South Korean popular culture feign a degree of paranoia and instability. Should North Korea’s humanitarian crisis devolve further, Pyongyang may decide to re-engage U.S. and South Korean interlocutors. A return to the negotiating table, however, should not be interpreted as a sign of instability. 

Andrew Yeo is a professor of Politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington DC and the co-editor of North Korean Human Rights: Activists and Networks.

Image: Reuters