The Coronavirus Is Expediting Middle East Outcomes

Reuters
March 19, 2020 Topic: Security Region: Middle East Blog Brand: Lebanon Watch Tags: Coronavirus

The Coronavirus Is Expediting Middle East Outcomes

The coronavirus arrived in the Middle East that was enduring a profound political transition. Since then, governments have seen their credibility worn down and their political dexterity tried by difficult economic transitions. The virus is expediting transitions and fractures that are already in the making.

The situation is tinged by Lebanon’s sectarian legacies, and Hezbollah is at the center of the current drama. Hezbollah essentially caused Lebanon’s default, vetoing an IMF bailout which would undermine its patronage and black market networks and force it to relinquish control over border crossings as well as Beirut’s port and airport. Now, some activists are bitterly referring to the virus the “Iranian” or “Syrian" Corona, blaming Hezbollah as a liability to the country’s security, particularly given continued “illegal” travel to and from Iran even after an official travel ban. And Hezbollah is squarely in the driver’s seat. In coalition negotiations, Hezbollah secured the Ministry of Public Health for one of its own. It was initially a lucrative offer, giving it access to Lebanon’s fourth-biggest budget. Yet now, Hezbollah is coordinating a porous national response and will likely be held to account by activists after the end of this crisis.  

Lebanon has finally declared a state of national emergency: non-essential shops have been locked down and citizens have been asked to work from home for the next two weeks. While protests have died down, it is inevitable that Lebanon will have to make some concessions to international financial institutions or undertake harsh austerity measures and Hezbollah, despite initially echoing protesters about a conditional IMF bailout, has now started to smell the coffee and is warming to an agreement. A deal with the IMF will set off another wave of popular discontent. Hezbollah was already losing popularity for suppressing the protests in the last government, and continues to attack and intimidate dissenters; its commanding position in the Lebanese government may now prove its poison chalice.  

The coronavirus arrived in the Middle East that was out of equilibrium and in a profound political transition. Since then, governments have seen their credibility worn down, and their political dexterity tried by difficult economic transitions and bubbling societal tensions. The virus has made it difficult to manage crises with which governments were already preoccupied. Yet because of this, in some of the region’s most key areas, it is expediting transitions and fractures that are already in the making.   

Jay Mens is the executive director of the Middle East and North Africa Forum, a think-tank researching Middle East politics and policy at the University of Cambridge. 

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