For all these reasons, Israel is most likely to reject Sinwar’s offer or altogether ignore it. This is all the more likely if, sometime after the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, Israel will need to react to another development—a Trump-proposed Israeli-Palestinian “ultimate deal.” An Israeli debate about such a deal is bound to short-circuit any serious Israeli consideration of the merits of an interim deal with Hamas. For its part, Hamas is bound to see a proposed Israeli-PA deal as merely intended to marginalize its own role. To avoid this, Sinwar may, like Sadat before him, ignite another round of fighting to demonstrate that he can’t be ignored.
Shai Feldman is the Crown Family Director of Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies.