Conflict as a result of miscalculation or the intentional instigation of war is becoming more likely by the day. Washington seems intent on abandoning its plans for strategic repositioning of military assets to focus on near-peer competition in line with the 2018 National Defense Strategy in favor of an Iran-focused military buildup in the Middle East. This is a far less predictable and controllable escalation than America’s sanctions or Iran’s phased withdrawal. But absent a spark that brings regional war and all the unpredictable consequences that come with it, the two parties are likely to continue their current trajectory of mutual escalation through the 2020 elections.

Alireza Ahmadi is a researcher and analyst focused on U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East. His work has been published by the National Interest , The Hill and Al-Monitor. Follow him on Twitter @AliAhmadi_Iran.

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