And Yet, Déjà Vu

These unique characteristics of the recent Israel-PIJ mini-war notwithstanding, the broader pattern of periodic eruption of Gaza-Israel violence is unlikely to change anytime soon. With Gaza continuing to be ruled by organizations committed to Israel’s destruction, the two sides find it difficult if not impossible to agree on anything that exceeds practical “on the ground” arrangements. The dynamics of domestic politics in Israel and among the Palestinians are also unlikely to change. Thus, Hamas and PIJ will continue to identify opportunities—real or imagined—to enhance their standing by igniting violence against Israel.

Given the continued deadlock of the Israeli domestic political scene—with the country now headed toward its fifth national elections in less than four years—it is also very difficult to see how Israeli leaders can take the bold steps needed to change the calculations of Hamas and the PIJ. If anything, providing meaningful positive incentives to avoid violence—beyond the relaxation measures already being implemented—is made even less likely by the Israeli public’s slow but steady tilt to the right in recent years. Sadly, then, the sense of déjà vu among both Israelis and Palestinians is both understandable and self-fulfilling.             

Shai Feldman is the Raymond Frankel Chair of Israeli Politics and Society at Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies. From 2005-2019 he was the Center’s founding director. During 2019-2022 Feldman served as president of Sapir Academic College in Israel, located less than two miles from the Gaza Strip.

Image: Reuters.