At its “Hi, Speed” event last week, Apple officially announced its iPhone lineup for 2020, which consists of four separate iPhone models: The iPhone 12, the iPhone 12 Mini, the iPhone 12 Pro, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max. All will have OLED screens and 5G capability, while the company will continue to sell the iPhone SE, and iPhone XR and iPhone 11.
Three days later, on Friday, the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro opened for preorders, and the devices officially go on the market this Friday; the other two models open for preorders November 6, and will arrive the 13th. And one leading analyst says that preorder has been very lucrative for Apple so far.
According to a note from leading Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities, as cited by the tech media, there were between 1.7 million and 2 million preorders of the iPhone 12 in the first twenty-four hours. This was seen as more than double the preorder numbers for the iPhone 11 last year.
However, Kuo does not see these sales as in “supercycle” territory, in the tradition of the iPhone 6 back in 2014.
Other analysts disagreed about the supercycle potential.
“This afternoon Apple launched its iPhone 12 product lineup in what we would characterize as Apple’s most important product cycle since the iPhone 6 in 2014 and should translate into a “supercycle” for Cupertino for the next year,” analyst Daniel K. Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote right after the event.
“In particular we are seeing Apple and its Asian suppliers anticipate stepped-up demand for the larger 6.7-inch model which is raising the overall iPhone 12 expectations heading into this “once in a decade” potential launch,” Ives added. “From a 5G perspective, there will be a US and non-US version introduced. The US version will have mmWave technology which we believe could be a game changer looking ahead as more infrastructure, technology, and apps are built around this transformational 5G highway over the coming years.”
When all four models are available, Kuo predicts that the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro will each earn about 30-35 percent of the market, with the iPhone 12 Pro Max taking 15-20 percent and the iPhone 12 Mini 10-15 percent.
The iPhone 11, according to Omdia’s Smartphone Model Tracker data released earlier this year, has been the top-selling smartphone in the world over the course of the first half of 2020, with 37.7 million units sold. This more than tripled the sales of the second most-popular smartphone, Samsung’s Galaxy A51. Other iPhones took the 5th, 6th and 7th spots.
Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.