Leveraging Beijing: How Trump Can Avoid His Predecessors' Mistakes

December 5, 2016 Topic: Security Region: Asia-Pacific Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: ChinaDefenseTrumpNational SecurityAsia-PacificDonald Trump

Leveraging Beijing: How Trump Can Avoid His Predecessors' Mistakes

Once in the Oval Office, however, Clinton faced dissension within his cabinet about whether to follow through on these campaign promises, and Trump is likely to encounter similar internal resistance.

Fourth, unlike Clinton’s choice to use an Executive Order as the preferred method, Trump’s team should try to operate within Congressional mandates, and rely on Executive Orders only as a last resort. Not only will this enhance the domestic legitimacy of any negative consequences that might result from Chinese retaliations, but it will also enhance the bargaining position for Trump’s negotiators by allowing them to speak on behalf of a united government. Another benefit of relying on Congressional mandate is that it increases the administration’s credibility in this high-stakes game of chicken by reducing or eliminating their ability to avoid imposing punitive measures if China does not comply.

However, there are definitely significant drawbacks to this approach. First, the lengthy process of passing Congressional legislation might delay the imposition of these sanctions when expediency is critical. Second, Congress might water down the sanctions, reducing or completely eliminating the punch that they were intended to deliver. Perhaps a more likely consequence is that the sanctions would not be as coherent or strategically targeted because of the more diffuse policymaking processes in Congress. Third, while relying on Congressional mandate does enhance the leverage and credibility of the administration’s negotiators, it could reduce their flexibility. Again, this can be a powerful tool for establishing credibility, but it also presents risk.

Given these drawbacks to seeking new Congressional authorization, perhaps the best option is to simply focus on enforcing the regulations contained within existing legislation. This middle ground does not capitalize on the full mandate provided by renewed Congressional authorization, but it eliminates the need to trudge through the treacherous swamps of Capitol Hill that often ensnare bold reforms and hobble decisive action.

In short, if Trump wants to use access to the American market as a means of gaining leverage over Beijing, there are four important lessons that he should learn from Clinton’s failed experiment. First, Trump should focus exclusively on economic issues and avoid squandering political capital on human rights demands. Second, if the Chinese are violating trade agreements or perpetuating predatory practices, then Trump should impose appropriate sanctions immediately, as opposed to granting Beijing an initial grace period. Third, the Trump administration should present a united front to their Chinese counterparts. Finally, the Trump administration should try to act under Congressional approval, but should initially focus on enforcing existing mandates instead of seeking new or expanded Congressional authorization. Employing these strategies may not ensure Trump’s success, but their adherence will at least ensure that he does not fail for the same reasons that Clinton failed.

Joe Riley is a Lieutenant in the United States Army.  All views expressed herein are his own and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense.

Image: U.S. Navy