This analysis recommends war.
It is shocking to put to print. However, with North Korea’s inexorable advance towards developing a nuclear-tipped ICBM, we enter the realm of bad choices. On balance, war on the peninsula is the least bad alternative. There are some months left for a brilliant diplomatic breakthrough that turns North Korea from the brink – these avenues must be energetically and exhaustively pursued. This analysis is presented on the fair assumption that such initiatives will fail.
This strategic assessment assumes one of two possibilities. First, that the U.S. accepts North Korea developing nuclear-tipped ICBMs capable of reaching the continental homeland, thereby allowing Pyongyang to achieve a stable deterrence relationship . Second, the U.S. seeks to disarm North Korea with a major military strike. Related possibilities such as a limited strike are ignored, as this overcomplicates matters and escalation should be assumed in any case.
In each scenario, I provide a range of consequences. Not all futures will come to pass, but some combination of these are a certainty and have a direct cause-and-effect relationship with the chosen course of action.
The United States chooses not to act militarily to destroy North Korea’s nuclear program. North Korea successfully conducts a long-range atmospheric nuclear test, conclusively proving its ability to deliver a nuclear weapon to the American homeland. The U.S. is deterred from further intervention, and over the next five to ten years North Korea continues to expand, diversify, and protect it’s growing nuclear arsenal.
1. Increased North Korean provocation
Having achieved a survivable second-strike capability and a stabilized nuclear deterrence relationship with the U.S., North Korea feels utterly unconstrained with respect to its neighbors. North Korea launches conventional ballistic missiles directly at Japan, killing scores of civilians. Instead of responding with massive force, the U.S. seeks to restrain its ally from escalating, fearful that a collapsing regime will retaliate with nuclear warheads against the United States. North Korea is co-opted into talks, but instead of rolling back it’s nuclear program in exchange for aid, the international community is blackmailed with threats of violence. The spiraling provocations destabilize the region and U.S. influence in Asia drastically recedes.
2. North Korea invades South Korea
Certain that the U.S. will not be able to intervene, North Korea breaks the armistice with a massive invasion of South Korea. North Korea is pushed back beyond the 38th parallel with American help, but not before millions of South Korean citizens lay dead. In Seoul, thousands perish daily as the city remains under constant bombardment. There is overwhelming pressure to push northward in response; however, the U.S. is paralyzed by the fear that a collapsing regime will launch its nuclear weapons against the U.S. In the end, ROK forces invade the north and seize control of the peninsula. At the last, North Korea launches two dozen nuclear missiles into the U.S., devastating several major U.S. cities and killing almost 20 million people. Despite being the victim of large-scale nuclear attack, U.S. options for responding remain elusive, as the North Korean regime is already being toppled.
3. Nuclear proliferation
Realizing that American nuclear assurances are utterly worthless, Japan and South Korea have no choice but to develop their own nuclear deterrent in response to North Korea’s threats and provocations. Australia quickly follows suit. The global non-proliferation regime disintegrates as nuclear weapons spread unfettered across Asia and then the world. North Korea begins openly proliferating nuclear weapons to nations and actors hostile to the U.S. Small states and unstable regimes become nuclear powers. Nuclear weapons are available on the black market, with non-state actors now having ready access to nuclear weapons for the first time.
4. China dominates Asia
In the wake of America being humiliated as a “paper tiger,” U.S. allies exert their independence. South Korea questions the purpose of having U.S. forces stationed on the peninsula, and even Australia wonders what contingencies might arise in which unequivocal U.S. support would be guaranteed. Meanwhile, emboldened by American inaction, China accelerates its military build-up. Efforts to deter Chinese aggression become less effective as Beijing is convinced that America will never risk a showdown. Soon China invades Taiwan, directly challenging U.S. credibility in the Pacific.
5. U.S. and China go to war
After crossing one too many thresholds, the United States is provoked into a massive war with North Korea in a surprise attack. Targeting of nuclear facilities is vastly more difficult as the arsenal has grown and diversified in the intervening years. Miraculously, the military campaign is proving successful despite heavy casualties. America launches a ground invasion, and U.S.-ROK forces quickly capture Pyongyang. Meanwhile, China, whose conventional forces have dramatically improved, decides to intervene. Invading from the north with millions of soldiers, China takes U.S. forces completely by surprise and pushes them back with terrible losses . After capturing Seoul, Beijing makes an offer to the South Korean government that they cannot refuse – a unified Korean Peninsula under Seoul’s authority, but all U.S. forces are to be permanently expelled.